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Millet in Nguigmi

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 28% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 14% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

205–339

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

208–356

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 27% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Nguigmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 27% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 276–358 317 246–379 389 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 237–347 278 195–373 343 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 205–339 257 192–378 308 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 197–346 254 170–439 298 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 208–356 267 176–471 315 –
Price history (358 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026297
Aug 2026348
Jul 2026325
Jun 2026292
May 2026275
Apr 2026263
Mar 2026255
Feb 2026246
Jan 2026243
Dec 2025253
Nov 2025276
Oct 2025274
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025327
Jul 2025376
Jun 2025347
May 2025336
Apr 2025324
Mar 2025331
Feb 2025335
Jan 2025331
Dec 2024306
Nov 2024336
Oct 2024341
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024505
Jul 2024476
Jun 2024422
May 2024413
Apr 2024403
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024332
Jan 2024319
Dec 2023321
Nov 2023336
Oct 2023367
Sept 2023444
Aug 2023398
Jul 2023343
May 2023389
Apr 2023354
Mar 2023316
Feb 2023211
Jan 2023331
Dec 2022290
Nov 2022161Data error
Oct 2022299
Sept 2022304
Aug 2022327
Jul 2022333
Jun 2022336
May 2022323
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022248
Jan 2022236
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021235
Oct 2021311
Sept 2021353
Aug 2021374
Jul 2021341
May 2021356
Apr 2021335
Mar 2021262
Feb 2021298
Jan 2021294
Dec 2020203
Nov 2020208
Oct 2020343
Sept 2020358
Aug 2020346
Jul 2020288
Jun 2020259
May 2020248
Apr 2020252
Mar 2020266
Feb 2020261
Jan 2020253
Dec 2019238
Nov 2019228
Oct 2019228
Sept 2019228
Jul 2019228
May 2019224
Apr 2019224
Mar 2019220
Feb 2019217
Jan 2019213
Dec 2018213
Nov 2018245
Oct 2018255
Sept 2018283
Aug 2018288
May 2018228
Apr 2018231
Mar 2018249
Feb 2018246
Jan 2018214
Dec 2017220
Nov 2017261
Oct 2017259
Sept 2017298
Aug 2017289
Jun 2017351
May 2017275
Apr 2017335
Mar 2017288
Feb 2017240
Jan 2017215
Nov 2016197
Oct 2016207
Sept 2016273
Aug 2016276
Jun 2016236
May 2016248
Mar 2016216
Feb 2016224
Jan 2016208
Dec 2015227
Oct 2015225
Sept 2015233
Aug 2015236
Jul 2015242
Jun 2015244
May 2015244
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015242
Feb 2015270
Jan 2015273
Nov 2014303
Oct 2014326
Sept 2014318
Aug 2014323
Jun 2014312
May 2014309
Apr 2014301
Mar 2014303
Feb 2014323
Jan 2014304
Dec 2013302
Nov 2013286
Oct 2013313
Sept 2013331
Aug 2013339
Jul 2013328
Jun 2013310
May 2013304
Apr 2013288
Mar 2013280
Feb 2013267
Jan 2013263
Dec 2012257
Nov 2012253
Oct 2012242
Sept 2012346
Aug 2012313
Jul 2012342
May 2012361
Apr 2012316
Mar 2012260
Feb 2012256
Jan 2012254
Dec 2011240
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011236
Sept 2011226
Jul 2011210
Jun 2011219
May 2011226
Apr 2011206
Mar 2011202
Jan 2011183
Nov 2010196
Oct 2010212
Sept 2010246
Aug 2010295
Jun 2010222
May 2010232
Apr 2010235
Mar 2010242
Feb 2010221
Jan 2010232
Dec 2009244
Nov 2009218
Oct 2009229
Sept 2009269
Aug 2009269
Jul 2009253
Jun 2009212
May 2009201
Apr 2009222
Mar 2009221
Feb 2009243
Jan 2009265
Dec 2008264
Aug 2008320
Jun 2008261
May 2008255
Apr 2008260
Mar 2008246
Feb 2008264
Jan 2008249
Dec 2007217
Nov 2007219
Oct 2007218
Sept 2007247
Aug 2007215
Jun 2007201
May 2007228
Apr 2007215
Mar 2007216
Feb 2007239
Jan 2007218
Dec 2006215
Nov 2006216
Oct 2006230
Sept 2006227
Aug 2006254
Jul 2006214
Jun 2006233
May 2006226
Apr 2006226
Mar 2006253
Feb 2006242
Jan 2006232
Dec 2005248
Nov 2005164
Oct 2005237
Sept 2005248
Aug 2005333
Jul 2005330
Jun 2005303
May 2005280
Apr 2005291
Mar 2005264
Feb 2005217
Jan 2005204
Dec 2004204
Nov 2004206
Sept 2004194
Aug 2004174
Jul 2004165
Jun 2004170
May 2004162
Apr 2004145
Mar 2004140
Feb 2004133
Jan 2004142
Dec 2003135
Nov 2003142
Oct 2003146
Sept 2003162
Aug 2003191
Jul 2003192
Jun 2003195
May 2003189
Apr 2003180
Mar 2003178
Feb 2003157
Jan 2003159
Dec 2002151
Nov 2002175
Oct 2002248
Sept 2002258
Aug 2002256
Jul 2002255
Jun 2002222
Apr 2002200
Mar 2002166
Feb 2002162
Jan 2002169
Dec 2001160
Nov 2001165
Oct 2001174
Sept 2001176
Aug 2001175
Jun 2001234
May 2001222
Apr 2001229
Mar 2001151
Feb 2001149
Jan 2001144
Sept 2000129
Aug 2000129
Jul 2000137
Jun 2000119
May 2000121
Apr 2000136
Mar 2000103
Feb 2000103
Jan 2000102
Dec 1999120
Nov 1999103
Oct 1999103
Sept 1999104
Aug 1999112
Jul 1999109
Jun 1999103
May 1999104
Apr 1999104
Mar 1999103
Feb 1999112
Jan 1999104
Dec 1998105
Nov 1998122
Oct 1998122
Sept 1998156
Aug 1998258
Jun 1998215
May 1998206
Apr 1998189
Mar 1998155
Feb 1998156
Jan 1998156
Dec 1997147
Nov 1997137
Oct 1997146
Jun 1997159
May 1997154
Apr 1997157
Mar 1997129
Feb 1997120
Jan 1997155
Dec 1996112
Nov 1996110
Oct 1996123
Aug 1996139
Jul 1996132
Jun 1996124
May 1996124
Apr 1996122
Mar 199692
Feb 199692
Jan 1996100
Dec 1995100
Nov 199598
Oct 199595
Sept 199595
Aug 199591
Jul 199581
Jun 199576
May 199576
Apr 199578
Mar 199578
Feb 199589
Jan 199595
Dec 199485
Nov 199476
Oct 199495
Sept 199495
Aug 199495
Jun 199496
May 199497
Apr 199486
Mar 199488
Feb 199497
Jan 199474

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-606-73-retail-kg.