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Millet in Ouallam

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 53 markets (usually 8% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–277

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

181–295

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 181 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ouallam: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 181 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 220–287 252 200–302 336 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 194–281 230 169–289 290 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–277 219 154–283 279 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 181–289 227 147–305 297 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 181–295 235 157–296 299 –
Price history (355 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026267
Aug 2026268
Jul 2026285
Jun 2026293
May 2026259
Apr 2026241
Mar 2026243
Feb 2026244
Jan 2026275
Dec 2025280
Nov 2025282
Oct 2025245
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025308
Jul 2025321
Jun 2025334
May 2025310
Apr 2025317
Mar 2025321
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025350
Dec 2024306
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024282
Sept 2024410
Aug 2024451
Jul 2024466
Jun 2024438
May 2024393
Apr 2024367
Mar 2024347
Feb 2024339
Jan 2024301
Dec 2023321
Nov 2023323
Oct 2023320
Sept 2023367
Aug 2023352
Jul 2023359
Jun 2023338
May 2023325
Apr 2023323
Mar 2023305
Feb 2023305
Jan 2023304
Dec 2022309
Nov 2022241
Oct 2022272
Sept 2022318
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022314
May 2022315
Apr 2022272
Mar 2022272
Feb 2022296
Jan 2022281
Dec 2021279
Nov 2021277
Oct 2021257
Sept 2021277
Aug 2021270
Jul 2021261
Jun 2021250
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Mar 2021219
Feb 2021267
Jan 2021255
Dec 2020237
Nov 2020201
Oct 2020261
Sept 2020277
Aug 2020277
Jul 2020290
Jun 2020271
May 2020271
Apr 2020280
Mar 2020259
Feb 2020266
Jan 2020267
Dec 2019283
Nov 2019283
Oct 2019267
Sept 2019283
Aug 2019282
Jul 2019206
Jun 2019283
May 2019284
Mar 2019283
Feb 2019282
Nov 2018282
Sept 2018350
Aug 2018350
Jun 2018350
May 2018341
Feb 2018330
Oct 2017296
Sept 2017343
Aug 2017349
Jul 2017336
Jun 2017338
May 2017326
Mar 2017266
Feb 2017243
Oct 2016307
Sept 2016302
Jun 2016280
May 2016234
Apr 2016239
Mar 2016229
Feb 2016229
Jan 2016229
Dec 2015243
Oct 2015243
Sept 2015243
Aug 2015243
Jul 2015243
Jun 2015243
May 2015243
Apr 2015249
Mar 2015281
Feb 2015281
Jan 2015281
Nov 2014285
Oct 2014285
Sept 2014285
Aug 2014295
Jul 2014295
Jun 2014295
May 2014249
Apr 2014285
Feb 2014285
Jan 2014285
Dec 2013285
Nov 2013285
Oct 2013285
Aug 2013278
Jul 2013278
Jun 2013278
May 2013278
Apr 2013278
Mar 2013278
Feb 2013254
Jan 2013254
Dec 2012291
Nov 2012282
Oct 2012365
Sept 2012377
Aug 2012317
Jul 2012361
May 2012313
Apr 2012289
Mar 2012288
Feb 2012283
Jan 2012283
Dec 2011275
Nov 2011240
Oct 2011236
Sept 2011251
Jul 2011239
Jun 2011217
May 2011222
Apr 2011235
Mar 2011234
Feb 2011231
Jan 2011237
Dec 2010244
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010228
Sept 2010288
Aug 2010289
Jul 2010286
Jun 2010275
May 2010270
Apr 2010259
Mar 2010259
Jan 2010252
Dec 2009230
Nov 2009256
Oct 2009215
Sept 2009312
Aug 2009307
Jul 2009271
Jun 2009258
May 2009250
Apr 2009260
Mar 2009260
Feb 2009237
Jan 2009216
Dec 2008234
Nov 2008219
Oct 2008215
Sept 2008250
Aug 2008248
Jul 2008232
Jun 2008226
May 2008212
Apr 2008216
Mar 2008235
Feb 2008212
Jan 2008202
Dec 2007170
Nov 2007170
Oct 2007214
Sept 2007215
Aug 2007204
Jul 2007191
Jun 2007201
May 2007180
Apr 2007163
Mar 2007178
Feb 2007167
Jan 2007167
Dec 2006163
Nov 2006145
Oct 2006191
Sept 2006202
Aug 2006210
Jul 2006195
Jun 2006209
May 2006199
Apr 2006194
Mar 2006193
Feb 2006181
Jan 2006176
Dec 2005156
Nov 2005164
Oct 2005201
Sept 2005283
Aug 2005371
Jul 2005319
Jun 2005274
May 2005243
Apr 2005228
Mar 2005233
Feb 2005190
Jan 2005176
Dec 2004170
Nov 2004154
Oct 2004168
Sept 2004165
Aug 2004162
Jul 2004155
Jun 2004153
May 2004154
Apr 2004143
Mar 2004149
Feb 2004148
Jan 2004137
Dec 2003114
Nov 2003113
Oct 2003136
Sept 2003144
Aug 2003156
Jul 2003193
Jun 2003196
May 2003195
Apr 2003196
Mar 2003181
Feb 2003198
Jan 2003172
Dec 2002156
Nov 2002114
Oct 2002170
Sept 2002227
Aug 2002250
Jul 2002238
Jun 2002222
May 2002196
Apr 2002198
Mar 2002189
Feb 2002168
Jan 2002129
Dec 2001114
Nov 2001104
Oct 2001130
Sept 2001188
Aug 2001221
Jul 2001215
Jun 2001213
May 2001212
Apr 2001224
Mar 2001178
Feb 2001162
Jan 2001156
Dec 2000147
Nov 2000131
Oct 2000131
Sept 2000131
Aug 2000135
Jun 2000139
May 2000139
Apr 2000127
Mar 2000127
Feb 2000122
Jan 2000107
Oct 1999107
Sept 199996
Aug 199985
Jul 1999128
Jun 1999127
Oct 1998130
Sept 1998191
Aug 1998232
Jul 1998240
Jun 1998230
May 1998230
Apr 1998211
Mar 1998170
Feb 1998168
Jan 1998170
Dec 1997170
Nov 1997161
Oct 1997158
Sept 1997163
Aug 1997203
Jul 1997188
Jun 1997206
May 1997194
Apr 1997194
Feb 1997125
Dec 1996107
Nov 1996107
Oct 1996107
Sept 1996147
Aug 1996183
Jul 1996137
Jun 1996135
May 1996135
Apr 1996124
Mar 199698
Feb 199696
Jan 199697
Oct 199588
Sept 199581
Aug 199596
Jul 199597
Jun 199597
May 199594
Apr 199583
Mar 199578
Feb 199575
Jan 199565
Dec 199467
Oct 1994106
Sept 1994106
Aug 1994106
Jul 1994115
Jun 1994104
May 1994103
Apr 199492
Mar 199490
Feb 199491
Jan 199475

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-607-73-retail-kg.