Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Maize in Sabon Machi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 14% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

123–187

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

111–196

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 123 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 196 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Sabon Machi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 123 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 196 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 142–182 163 128–206 270 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 125–181 143 106–194 236 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 123–187 145 110–226 237 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 113–192 139 94.2–256 228 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 111–196 140 92.7–284 234 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026176
Aug 2026172
Jul 2026182
Jun 2026176
May 2026164
Apr 2026160
Mar 2026153
Feb 2026151
Jan 2026153
Dec 2025158
Nov 2025192
Oct 2025195
Sept 2025201
Aug 2025207
Jul 2025232
Jun 2025253
May 2025242
Apr 2025254
Mar 2025252
Feb 2025270
Jan 2025290
Dec 2024270
Nov 2024245
Oct 2024289
Sept 2024385
Aug 2024389
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024385
May 2024321
Apr 2024329
Mar 2024318
Feb 2024312
Jan 2024293
Dec 2023277
Nov 2023291
Oct 2023283
Sept 2023367
Aug 2023329
Jul 2023293
Jun 2023270
May 2023233
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023217
Jan 2023217
Dec 2022221
Nov 2022318
Oct 2022217
Sept 2022233
Aug 2022250
Jul 2022272
Jun 2022276
May 2022276
Apr 2022274
Mar 2022267
Feb 2022274
Jan 2022262
Dec 2021233
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021217
Sept 2021279
Aug 2021308
Jul 2021279
Jun 2021259
May 2021259
Apr 2021240
Feb 2021230
Jan 2021204
Dec 2020223
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020261
Jul 2020211
Jun 2020205
May 2020200
Apr 2020183
Mar 2020169
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020167
Dec 2019161
Nov 2019167
Oct 2019172
Sept 2019172
Jul 2019179
Jun 2019179
May 2019179
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019177
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018179
Nov 2018196
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018212
Aug 2018198
Jul 2018221
May 2018221
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018192
Feb 2018192
Jan 2018192
Dec 2017189
Nov 2017185
Oct 2017179
Sept 2017196
Aug 2017259
Jul 2017241
Jun 2017232
May 2017241
Apr 2017245
Mar 2017231
Feb 2017231
Jan 2017212
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016217
Sept 2016255
Aug 2016260
Jul 2016245
Jun 2016212
May 2016192
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016196
Feb 2016192
Jan 2016197
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015197
Sept 2015218
Aug 2015193
Jul 2015192
Jun 2015192
May 2015192
Apr 2015187
Mar 2015173
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015167
Nov 2014171
Oct 2014181
Sept 2014183
Aug 2014196
Jul 2014192
Jun 2014212
May 2014215
Apr 2014216
Mar 2014212
Feb 2014209
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013209
Nov 2013230
Oct 2013230
Sept 2013251
Aug 2013260
Jul 2013256
Jun 2013256
May 2013241
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013236
Jan 2013240
Dec 2012240
Nov 2012246
Oct 2012205
Sept 2012255
Aug 2012312
May 2012248
Apr 2012244
Dec 2011221
Nov 2011236
Oct 2011215
Sept 2011209
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011200
May 2011236
Apr 2011196
Mar 2011189
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010200
Nov 2010213
Oct 2010220
Sept 2010244
Aug 2010289
Jul 2010249
Jun 2010226
May 2010235
Apr 2010233
Mar 2010214
Feb 2010224
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009201
Nov 2009212
Oct 2009216
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009263
Jul 2009257
Jun 2009243
May 2009242
Apr 2009244
Mar 2009259
Feb 2009374
Jan 2009230

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-610-51-retail-kg.