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Rice (imported) in Sabon Machi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 5% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

452–545

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

432–558

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 432 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Sabon Machi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 432 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 477–530 500 461–559 609 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 461–534 499 458–596 628 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 452–545 496 432–652 604 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 443–551 491 427–699 583 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 432–558 495 388–692 589 –
Price history (179 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026488
May 2026475
Apr 2026475
Mar 2026475
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025525
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025619
Jan 2025625
Dec 2024625
Nov 2024629
Oct 2024650
Sept 2024633
Aug 2024688
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024713
May 2024650
Apr 2024650
Mar 2024650
Feb 2024610
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023650
Oct 2023675
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022550
Aug 2022550
Jul 2022550
Jun 2022550
May 2022550
Apr 2022550
Mar 2022550
Feb 2022538
Jan 2022550
Nov 2021550
Oct 2021550
Sept 2021550
Aug 2021550
Jul 2021550
Jun 2021550
May 2021550
Apr 2021550
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020475
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020481
May 2020475
Apr 2020475
Mar 2020475
Feb 2020475
Jan 2020465
Dec 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018475
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014530
Apr 2014538
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Nov 2013450
Oct 2013483
Sept 2013488
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013475
Jun 2013475
May 2013494
Apr 2013475
Mar 2013475
Jan 2013488
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Nov 2011471
Oct 2011469
Sept 2011462
Jul 2011462
Jun 2011450
May 2011450
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011436
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010405
Aug 2010425
Jul 2010425
Jun 2010425
May 2010385
Apr 2010410
Mar 2010417
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010444
Dec 2009425
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009400
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009475

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-610-64-retail-kg.