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Maize in Tanout

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 9% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 12% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

162–245

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–265

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 162 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tanout: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 162 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 196–247 218 173–283 347 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 173–247 206 147–281 322 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 162–245 194 140–324 296 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 158–253 193 142–352 292 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–265 195 139–425 307 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026258
Aug 2026217
Jul 2026237
Jun 2026232
May 2026216
Apr 2026216
Mar 2026217
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026213
Dec 2025209
Nov 2025231
Oct 2025243
Sept 2025242
Aug 2025239
Jul 2025322
Jun 2025347
May 2025359
Apr 2025346
Mar 2025321
Feb 2025363
Jan 2025282
Dec 2024325
Nov 2024304
Oct 2024339
Sept 2024429
Aug 2024483
Jul 2024480
Jun 2024440
May 2024379
Apr 2024330
Mar 2024322
Feb 2024332
Jan 2024359
Dec 2023304
Nov 2023366
Oct 2023362
Sept 2023371
Aug 2023397
Jul 2023381
Jun 2023359
May 2023311
Apr 2023304
Mar 2023304
Feb 2023289
Jan 2023289
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022237
Oct 2022276
Sept 2022315
Aug 2022315
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022326
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022337
Feb 2022330
Jan 2022333
Dec 2021306
Nov 2021283
Oct 2021321
Sept 2021376
Aug 2021381
Jul 2021329
Jun 2021355
May 2021355
Apr 2021338
Mar 2021283
Feb 2021311
Jan 2021261
Nov 2020244
Oct 2020276
Sept 2020285
Aug 2020298
Jul 2020303
Jun 2020258
May 2020248
Apr 2020244
Mar 2020243
Feb 2020180
Jan 2020247
Dec 2019245
Nov 2019267
Oct 2019262
Sept 2019197
Jul 2019152
Jun 2019190
May 2019216
Apr 2019230
Mar 2019220
Feb 2019221
Jan 2019199
Dec 2018198
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018214
Sept 2018233
Aug 2018189
Jul 2018189
Jun 2018234
May 2018232
Apr 2018217
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018218
Jan 2018240
Dec 2017220
Sept 2017306
Aug 2017330
Jul 2017285
Jun 2017302
May 2017290
Apr 2017264
Mar 2017244
Feb 2017249
Jan 2017249
Nov 2016247
Oct 2016247
Sept 2016294
Aug 2016305
Jul 2016236
Jun 2016229
May 2016206
Apr 2016204
Mar 2016204
Feb 2016204
Jan 2016178
Dec 2015178
Oct 2015183
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015156
Jul 2015183
Jun 2015194
May 2015194
Apr 2015188
Mar 2015176
Feb 2015195
Jan 2015199
Nov 2014248
Oct 2014240
Sept 2014220
Aug 2014223
Jul 2014230
Jun 2014229
May 2014258
Apr 2014241
Mar 2014241
Feb 2014232
Jan 2014261
Dec 2013262
Nov 2013256
Oct 2013252
Sept 2013300
Aug 2013286
Jul 2013252
Jun 2013279
May 2013279
Apr 2013279
Mar 2013281
Jan 2013249
Dec 2012279
Sept 2012237
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012272
May 2012212
Apr 2012238
Dec 2011230
Nov 2011238
Oct 2011238
Sept 2011236
Jul 2011252
Jun 2011254
May 2011257
Apr 2011223
Mar 2011178
Feb 2011184
Jan 2011184
Nov 2010162
Oct 2010161
Sept 2010178
Aug 2010188
Jul 2010213
Jun 2010221
May 2010204
Apr 2010197
Mar 2010193
Feb 2010190
Jan 2010190
Dec 2009187
Nov 2009194
Oct 2009177
Sept 2009184
Aug 2009201
Jul 2009215
Jun 2009211
May 2009221
Apr 2009221
Mar 2009221
Feb 2009225
Jan 2009223

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-615-51-retail-kg.