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Rice (imported) in Tanout

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 9% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

416–508

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

394–529

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 416 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 394 and 529 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tanout: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 416 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 394 and 529 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 443–495 471 410–514 564 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 428–498 470 387–536 565 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 416–508 467 374–580 573 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 402–516 464 371–589 566 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 394–529 465 344–640 580 –
Price history (198 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026446
Aug 2026474
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026454
May 2026445
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025486
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025540
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025515
May 2025548
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025644
Jan 2025604
Dec 2024646
Nov 2024625
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024681
Aug 2024650
Jul 2024648
Jun 2024640
May 2024585
Apr 2024580
Mar 2024590
Feb 2024600
Jan 2024597
Dec 2023609
Nov 2023614
Oct 2023616
Sept 2023548
Aug 2023582
Jul 2023510
Jun 2023510
May 2023514
Apr 2023512
Mar 2023512
Feb 2023512
Jan 2023512
Dec 2022512
Nov 2022527
Oct 2022512
Sept 2022510
Aug 2022512
Jul 2022510
Jun 2022509
Apr 2022504
Mar 2022512
Feb 2022514
Jan 2022515
Dec 2021515
Nov 2021514
Oct 2021510
Sept 2021453
Aug 2021439
Jul 2021445
Jun 2021443
May 2021443
Apr 2021429
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021444
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020432
Nov 2020451
Oct 2020442
Sept 2020445
Aug 2020445
Jul 2020439
Jun 2020430
May 2020430
Apr 2020430
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020428
Jan 2020428
Dec 2019430
Nov 2019430
Oct 2019428
Sept 2019425
Aug 2019442
Jul 2019508
Jun 2019426
May 2019425
Apr 2019427
Mar 2019427
Feb 2019427
Jan 2019427
Dec 2018427
Nov 2018427
Oct 2018427
Sept 2018427
Aug 2018427
Jul 2018427
Jun 2018427
May 2018437
Apr 2018427
Mar 2018435
Feb 2018510
Jan 2018510
Dec 2017510
Sept 2017478
Aug 2017479
Jul 2017441
Jun 2017461
May 2017462
Apr 2017461
Mar 2017461
Feb 2017476
Jan 2017476
Nov 2016476
Oct 2016476
Sept 2016484
Aug 2016484
Jul 2016481
Jun 2016479
May 2016481
Apr 2016484
Mar 2016483
Feb 2016481
Jan 2016484
Dec 2015415
Oct 2015487
Sept 2015488
Aug 2015483
Jul 2015484
Jun 2015484
May 2015486
Apr 2015487
Mar 2015491
Feb 2015482
Jan 2015483
Nov 2014478
Oct 2014482
Sept 2014486
Aug 2014483
Jul 2014482
Jun 2014481
May 2014482
Apr 2014489
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014504
Dec 2013505
Nov 2013497
Oct 2013497
Sept 2013498
Aug 2013463
Jul 2013517
Jun 2013519
May 2013549
Apr 2013510
Mar 2013514
Jan 2013514
Dec 2012519
Sept 2012532
Aug 2012538
Jul 2012540
May 2012524
Apr 2012519
Dec 2011520
Nov 2011521
Oct 2011522
Sept 2011524
Jul 2011530
Jun 2011549
May 2011549
Apr 2011535
Mar 2011521
Jan 2011520
Dec 2010474
Nov 2010423
Oct 2010436
Sept 2010412
Aug 2010440
Jul 2010440
Jun 2010424
May 2010440
Apr 2010441
Mar 2010441
Feb 2010442
Jan 2010442
Dec 2009442
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009443
Sept 2009434
Aug 2009436
Jul 2009447
Jun 2009443
May 2009469
Apr 2009444
Mar 2009454
Feb 2009461
Jan 2009496

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-615-64-retail-kg.