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Sorghum in Tanout

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

132–234

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

133–257

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 234 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tanout: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 234 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 181–252 211 167–275 306 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 155–250 188 122–256 258 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 132–234 166 119–294 211 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–240 166 121–338 215 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 133–257 183 118–379 236 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026256
Aug 2026226
Jul 2026276
Jun 2026266
May 2026246
Apr 2026195
Mar 2026215
Feb 2026207
Jan 2026197
Dec 2025175
Nov 2025217
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025214
Aug 2025237
Jul 2025257
Jun 2025267
May 2025290
Apr 2025258
Mar 2025252
Feb 2025255
Jan 2025267
Dec 2024226
Nov 2024241
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024388
Aug 2024418
Jul 2024426
Jun 2024369
May 2024351
Apr 2024310
Mar 2024289
Feb 2024286
Jan 2024270
Dec 2023249
Nov 2023252
Oct 2023240
Sept 2023264
Aug 2023273
Jul 2023221
Jun 2023208
May 2023185
Apr 2023206
Mar 2023185
Feb 2023167
Jan 2023144
Dec 2022169
Oct 2022218
Sept 2022261
Aug 2022284
Jul 2022296
Jun 2022296
Apr 2022295
Mar 2022287
Feb 2022284
Jan 2022242
Dec 2021242
Nov 2021166
Oct 2021260
Sept 2021314
Aug 2021323
Jul 2021264
Jun 2021246
May 2021246
Apr 2021251
Mar 2021284
Feb 2021244
Jan 2021270
Dec 2020159
Nov 2020143
Oct 2020204
Sept 2020281
Aug 2020259
Jul 2020265
Jun 2020218
May 2020195
Apr 2020173
Mar 2020181
Feb 2020155
Jan 2020156
Dec 2019146
Nov 2019144
Oct 2019163
Sept 2019147
Aug 2019162
Jul 2019138
Jun 2019116
May 2019133
Mar 2019128
Feb 2019119
Jan 2019119
Dec 2018137
Nov 2018137
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018234
Aug 2018232
Jul 2018232
Jun 2018234
May 2018235
Apr 2018221
Mar 2018205
Feb 2018205
Jan 2018201
Dec 2017166
Sept 2017305
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017261
Jun 2017292
May 2017278
Apr 2017277
Mar 2017224
Feb 2017222
Jan 2017167
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016160
Sept 2016207
Aug 2016226
Jul 2016195
Jun 2016188
May 2016179
Mar 2016151
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016149
Dec 2015149
Oct 2015137
Sept 2015131
Aug 2015126
Jul 2015140
Jun 2015145
May 2015150
Apr 2015136
Mar 2015131
Feb 2015133
Jan 2015132
Nov 2014158
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014177
Aug 2014190
Jul 2014194
Jun 2014190
May 2014213
Apr 2014211
Mar 2014206
Feb 2014205
Jan 2014222
Dec 2013241
Nov 2013230
Oct 2013209
Sept 2013226
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013254
Jun 2013237
May 2013224
Apr 2013224
Mar 2013210
Jan 2013151
Dec 2012167
Sept 2012215
Aug 2012258
Jul 2012260
May 2012201
Apr 2012229
Dec 2011178
Nov 2011163
Oct 2011141
Sept 2011133
Jul 2011146
Jun 2011128
May 2011137
Apr 2011133
Mar 2011119
Feb 2011101
Jan 2011104
Dec 2010104
Nov 2010113
Oct 2010135
Sept 2010182
Aug 2010202
Jul 2010223
Jun 2010217
May 2010207
Apr 2010186
Mar 2010191
Feb 2010193
Jan 2010188
Dec 2009188
Nov 2009188
Oct 2009171
Sept 2009178
Aug 2009198
Jul 2009196
Jun 2009159
May 2009165
Apr 2009147
Mar 2009154
Feb 2009173
Jan 2009152

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-615-65-retail-kg.