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Millet in Tanout

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–256

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–273

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tanout: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–272 234 188–290 325 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 171–257 200 143–262 259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–256 185 126–268 233 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 157–266 196 133–313 254 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–273 202 128–329 271 –
Price history (198 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026260
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026277
Jun 2026263
May 2026246
Apr 2026221
Mar 2026216
Feb 2026206
Jan 2026191
Dec 2025194
Nov 2025220
Oct 2025226
Sept 2025252
Aug 2025283
Jul 2025299
Jun 2025317
May 2025319
Apr 2025310
Mar 2025302
Feb 2025303
Jan 2025298
Dec 2024262
Nov 2024262
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024409
Aug 2024444
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024381
May 2024348
Apr 2024313
Mar 2024292
Feb 2024283
Jan 2024267
Dec 2023262
Nov 2023245
Oct 2023241
Sept 2023279
Aug 2023277
Jul 2023227
Jun 2023232
May 2023227
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023219
Feb 2023226
Jan 2023215
Dec 2022230
Nov 2022216
Oct 2022220
Sept 2022286
Aug 2022308
Jul 2022311
Jun 2022308
Apr 2022304
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022289
Jan 2022246
Dec 2021264
Nov 2021193
Oct 2021248
Sept 2021275
Aug 2021283
Jul 2021242
Jun 2021242
May 2021243
Apr 2021247
Mar 2021303
Feb 2021256
Jan 2021293
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020164
Oct 2020210
Sept 2020276
Aug 2020275
Jul 2020274
Jun 2020235
May 2020218
Apr 2020201
Mar 2020206
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020182
Dec 2019167
Nov 2019162
Oct 2019166
Sept 2019151
Aug 2019208
Jul 2019129
Jun 2019130
May 2019160
Apr 2019166
Mar 2019136
Feb 2019130
Jan 2019148
Dec 2018155
Nov 2018122
Oct 2018159
Sept 2018217
Aug 2018227
Jul 2018227
Jun 2018235
May 2018217
Apr 2018217
Mar 2018199
Feb 2018197
Jan 2018197
Dec 2017200
Sept 2017307
Aug 2017299
Jul 2017288
Jun 2017300
May 2017279
Apr 2017277
Mar 2017242
Feb 2017244
Jan 2017183
Nov 2016166
Oct 2016157
Sept 2016226
Aug 2016243
Jul 2016201
Jun 2016211
May 2016185
Apr 2016176
Feb 2016148
Jan 2016141
Dec 2015150
Oct 2015157
Sept 2015168
Aug 2015151
Jul 2015177
Jun 2015186
May 2015194
Apr 2015167
Mar 2015156
Feb 2015163
Jan 2015159
Nov 2014151
Oct 2014188
Sept 2014209
Aug 2014226
Jul 2014252
Jun 2014228
May 2014235
Apr 2014237
Mar 2014237
Feb 2014222
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013249
Nov 2013253
Oct 2013234
Sept 2013258
Aug 2013255
Jul 2013274
Jun 2013251
May 2013261
Apr 2013268
Mar 2013239
Jan 2013213
Dec 2012211
Sept 2012267
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012304
May 2012254
Apr 2012230
Dec 2011192
Nov 2011183
Oct 2011146
Sept 2011124
Jul 2011145
Jun 2011136
May 2011146
Apr 2011147
Mar 2011124
Feb 2011124
Jan 2011137
Dec 2010137
Nov 2010121
Oct 2010116
Sept 2010192
Aug 2010237
Jul 2010233
Jun 2010236
May 2010221
Apr 2010193
Mar 2010193
Feb 2010190
Jan 2010186
Dec 2009188
Nov 2009199
Oct 2009182
Sept 2009197
Aug 2009230
Jul 2009214
Jun 2009176
May 2009172
Apr 2009159
Mar 2009171
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009173

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-615-73-retail-kg.