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Maize in Tchadoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

125–199

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

116–211

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 125 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 116 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tchadoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 125 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 116 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 147–193 169 134–218 272 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 129–193 153 122–208 250 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 125–199 149 115–239 249 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 117–204 146 102–263 242 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 116–211 154 96–306 260 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026184
Aug 2026180
Jul 2026195
Jun 2026203
May 2026174
Apr 2026167
Mar 2026167
Feb 2026157
Jan 2026143
Dec 2025153
Nov 2025195
Oct 2025195
Sept 2025206
Aug 2025202
Jul 2025247
Jun 2025253
May 2025251
Apr 2025263
Mar 2025269
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025293
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024261
Sept 2024367
Aug 2024391
Jul 2024459
Jun 2024401
May 2024333
Apr 2024337
Mar 2024306
Feb 2024304
Jan 2024299
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023274
Oct 2023276
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023373
Jul 2023311
Jun 2023253
May 2023252
Apr 2023252
Mar 2023252
Feb 2023257
Jan 2023237
Dec 2022243
Nov 2022236
Oct 2022232
Sept 2022252
Aug 2022250
Jul 2022263
Jun 2022269
May 2022265
Apr 2022266
Mar 2022271
Feb 2022278
Jan 2022288
Dec 2021244
Nov 2021237
Oct 2021217
Sept 2021268
Aug 2021313
Jul 2021306
Jun 2021258
May 2021258
Apr 2021257
Mar 2021255
Feb 2021244
Jan 2021276
Dec 2020222
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020223
Sept 2020232
Aug 2020237
Jul 2020228
May 2020197
Mar 2020181
Feb 2020142
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019178
Nov 2019178
Oct 2019168
Sept 2019168
Aug 2019164
Jul 2019160
Jun 2019160
May 2019172
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019174
Feb 2019167
Jan 2019156
Dec 2018136
Nov 2018165
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018216
Jul 2018198
May 2018196
Apr 2018190
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017171
Nov 2017171
Oct 2017190
Sept 2017174
Aug 2017242
Jul 2017233
Jun 2017233
May 2017231
Apr 2017229
Mar 2017211
Feb 2017205
Jan 2017210
Nov 2016191
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016226
Jun 2016195
Apr 2016173
Mar 2016169
Feb 2016171
Jan 2016177
Dec 2015172
Oct 2015181
Sept 2015210
Aug 2015173
Jul 2015170
Jun 2015176
May 2015172
Apr 2015169
Mar 2015161
Feb 2015170
Jan 2015166
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014179
Sept 2014190
Aug 2014198
Jul 2014207
Jun 2014210
May 2014204
Apr 2014217
Mar 2014212
Feb 2014211
Jan 2014211
Dec 2013214
Nov 2013220
Oct 2013240
Sept 2013271
Aug 2013246
Jul 2013246
Jun 2013251
May 2013249
Apr 2013245
Mar 2013234
Jan 2013230
Dec 2012230
Aug 2012249
Jul 2012253
May 2012224
Apr 2012209
Dec 2011218
Nov 2011198
Oct 2011203
Sept 2011222
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011208
May 2011214
Apr 2011196
Mar 2011179
Feb 2011176
Jan 2011191
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010188
Oct 2010188
Sept 2010190
Aug 2010217
Jul 2010224
Jun 2010230
May 2010211
Apr 2010215
Mar 2010199
Feb 2010199
Jan 2010218
Dec 2009213
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009201
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009235
Jul 2009227
Jun 2009201
May 2009200
Apr 2009199
Mar 2009202
Feb 2009223
Jan 2009218

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-616-51-retail-kg.