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Rice (imported) in Tchadoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

441–539

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

419–558

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 441 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 419 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tchadoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 441 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 419 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 477–531 500 441–553 616 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 460–535 499 409–572 610 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 441–539 498 407–632 601 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 434–552 496 400–687 605 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 419–558 497 362–691 604 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026488
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026440
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025560
Jul 2025625
Jun 2025650
May 2025630
Apr 2025638
Mar 2025638
Feb 2025638
Jan 2025670
Dec 2024670
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024675
Sept 2024775
Aug 2024750
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024687
May 2024650
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024660
Feb 2024688
Jan 2024650
Dec 2023650
Nov 2023663
Oct 2023700
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023625
Jul 2023600
Jun 2023650
May 2023600
Apr 2023600
Mar 2023600
Feb 2023600
Jan 2023600
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022435
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022517
Apr 2022538
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021444
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
May 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020467
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019438
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018475
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018467
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016450
Aug 2016483
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014482
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011520
May 2011525
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011444
Dec 2010425
Nov 2010425
Oct 2010425
Sept 2010440
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Mar 2010462
Feb 2010475
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009500
Mar 2009500
Feb 2009500
Jan 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-616-64-retail-kg.