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Sorghum in Tchadoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 41% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 35% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

101–167

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

102–174

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 101 and 167 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 102 and 174 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tchadoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 101 and 167 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 102 and 174 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 124–172 146 115–180 241 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 115–169 139 102–186 236 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 101–167 129 95.4–192 204 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 104–172 131 99–233 213 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 102–174 131 102–247 205 –
Price history (167 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026171
Aug 2026155
Jul 2026169
Jun 2026170
May 2026163
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026159
Feb 2026145
Jan 2026128
Nov 2025166
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025191
Aug 2025210
Jul 2025265
Jun 2025266
May 2025255
Apr 2025271
Mar 2025266
Feb 2025265
Jan 2025268
Dec 2024246
Nov 2024239
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024356
Aug 2024409
Jul 2024428
Jun 2024411
May 2024318
Apr 2024291
Mar 2024268
Feb 2024260
Jan 2024244
Dec 2023218
Sept 2023235
Aug 2023247
Jul 2023255
Jun 2023245
May 2023214
Apr 2023205
Mar 2023185
Feb 2023201
Jan 2023184
Dec 2022185
Nov 2022239
Sept 2022215
Aug 2022223
Jul 2022232
Jun 2022238
May 2022237
Apr 2022235
Mar 2022230
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022238
Dec 2021188
Sept 2021245
Aug 2021298
Jul 2021274
Jun 2021225
May 2021225
Apr 2021238
Mar 2021228
Feb 2021207
Jan 2021183
Dec 2020199
Nov 2020140
Sept 2020246
Aug 2020253
Jul 2020247
May 2020182
Mar 2020172
Sept 2019120
Jul 2019130
Jun 2019140
May 2019138
Apr 2019135
Mar 2019161
Feb 2019140
Jan 2019136
Dec 2018136
Jul 2018235
Apr 2018190
Mar 2018170
Feb 2018196
Jan 2018167
Dec 2017166
Nov 2017196
Jul 2017253
Jun 2017272
May 2017248
Apr 2017252
Mar 2017203
Feb 2017179
Jan 2017136
Nov 2016134
Aug 2016178
Jul 2016162
Jun 2016143
May 2016134
Apr 2016124
Mar 2016134
Feb 2016118
Jan 2016107
Dec 2015107
Sept 2015125
Aug 2015132
Jul 2015162
Jun 2015133
May 2015149
Apr 2015129
Mar 2015114
Feb 2015113
Jan 2015115
Sept 2014156
Aug 2014167
Jul 2014173
Jun 2014174
May 2014173
Apr 2014178
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014163
Jan 2014167
Dec 2013167
Nov 2013168
Sept 2013224
Aug 2013257
Jul 2013281
Jun 2013226
May 2013228
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013205
Jan 2013185
Aug 2012244
Jul 2012292
May 2012220
Apr 2012223
Dec 2011199
Nov 2011189
Oct 2011154
Sept 2011128
Jul 2011149
Jun 2011192
May 2011154
Apr 2011143
Mar 2011138
Feb 2011143
Jan 2011144
Oct 2010170
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010242
Jul 2010276
Jun 2010231
May 2010211
Apr 2010194
Mar 2010187
Feb 2010192
Jan 2010190
Dec 2009154
Oct 2009195
Sept 2009145
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009225
Jun 2009156
May 2009163
Apr 2009172
Mar 2009173
Feb 2009180
Jan 2009170

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-616-65-retail-kg.