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Millet in Tchadoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 30% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 13% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

133–209

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

126–223

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tchadoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 147–201 166 131–213 237 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 130–200 157 126–209 215 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 133–209 158 121–254 228 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 130–214 159 113–304 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 126–223 163 105–284 239 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026176
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026231
Jun 2026227
May 2026210
Apr 2026181
Mar 2026185
Feb 2026172
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025171
Nov 2025178
Oct 2025177
Sept 2025191
Aug 2025222
Jul 2025272
Jun 2025277
May 2025266
Apr 2025279
Mar 2025285
Feb 2025295
Jan 2025299
Dec 2024272
Nov 2024262
Oct 2024253
Sept 2024267
Aug 2024429
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024387
May 2024344
Apr 2024306
Mar 2024283
Feb 2024279
Jan 2024250
Dec 2023235
Nov 2023249
Oct 2023228
Sept 2023264
Aug 2023267
Jul 2023288
Jun 2023269
May 2023243
Apr 2023243
Mar 2023231
Feb 2023225
Jan 2023215
Dec 2022220
Nov 2022214
Oct 2022207
Sept 2022248
Aug 2022255
Jul 2022304
Jun 2022294
May 2022274
Apr 2022269
Mar 2022273
Feb 2022261
Jan 2022251
Dec 2021229
Nov 2021233
Oct 2021213
Sept 2021255
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021286
Jun 2021268
May 2021264
Apr 2021267
Mar 2021253
Feb 2021244
Jan 2021220
Dec 2020213
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020187
Sept 2020220
Aug 2020312
Jul 2020282
May 2020214
Mar 2020227
Feb 2020216
Jan 2020197
Dec 2019172
Nov 2019181
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019153
Aug 2019169
Jul 2019161
Jun 2019155
May 2019167
Apr 2019194
Mar 2019186
Feb 2019172
Jan 2019162
Dec 2018162
Nov 2018163
Oct 2018155
Sept 2018170
Aug 2018202
Jul 2018240
May 2018239
Apr 2018228
Mar 2018209
Feb 2018198
Jan 2018196
Dec 2017194
Nov 2017197
Oct 2017176
Sept 2017170
Aug 2017302
Jul 2017271
Jun 2017271
May 2017272
Apr 2017257
Mar 2017230
Feb 2017196
Jan 2017187
Nov 2016162
Aug 2016214
Jul 2016204
Jun 2016171
May 2016169
Apr 2016159
Mar 2016159
Feb 2016137
Jan 2016135
Dec 2015136
Oct 2015131
Sept 2015136
Aug 2015141
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015151
Apr 2015161
Mar 2015133
Feb 2015131
Jan 2015129
Nov 2014138
Oct 2014146
Sept 2014158
Aug 2014171
Jul 2014199
Jun 2014199
May 2014188
Apr 2014214
Mar 2014199
Feb 2014194
Jan 2014189
Dec 2013204
Nov 2013211
Oct 2013210
Sept 2013224
Aug 2013262
Jul 2013291
Jun 2013286
May 2013237
Apr 2013263
Mar 2013254
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012212
Aug 2012290
Jul 2012291
May 2012256
Apr 2012250
Dec 2011213
Nov 2011181
Oct 2011157
Sept 2011132
Jul 2011148
Jun 2011154
May 2011169
Apr 2011157
Mar 2011139
Feb 2011143
Jan 2011145
Dec 2010144
Nov 2010126
Oct 2010133
Sept 2010143
Aug 2010209
Jul 2010210
Jun 2010223
May 2010212
Apr 2010202
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010188
Jan 2010177
Dec 2009165
Nov 2009163
Oct 2009155
Sept 2009152
Aug 2009202
Jul 2009180
Jun 2009159
May 2009154
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009158
Feb 2009165
Jan 2009163

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-616-73-retail-kg.