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Rice (imported) in Tchintabaraden

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 18% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 7% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

486–631

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

477–653

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 486 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 477 and 653 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tchintabaraden: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 486 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 477 and 653 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 521–607 580 509–629 648 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 511–615 575 461–649 624 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 486–631 567 481–713 622 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 475–643 564 471–696 650 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 477–653 560 459–729 646 –
Price history (164 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026550
Aug 2026588
Jul 2026590
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026510
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025588
Jun 2025550
May 2025650
Apr 2025663
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025750
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024725
Sept 2024783
Aug 2024800
Jul 2024830
Jun 2024800
May 2024738
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024700
Dec 2023700
Nov 2022449
Oct 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022600
May 2022600
Apr 2022600
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021550
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Dec 2020468
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019413
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019380
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Mar 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016450
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Mar 2010450
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009500
Mar 2009500
Feb 2009500
Jan 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-617-64-retail-kg.