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Millet in Tchintabaraden

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 12% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

198–301

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

192–319

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 198 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 192 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tchintabaraden: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 198 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 192 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 242–307 272 227–311 334 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 210–298 244 195–309 289 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 198–301 239 178–319 280 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 194–303 239 168–350 275 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 192–319 246 151–369 293 –
Price history (352 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026270
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026312
Jun 2026305
May 2026280
Apr 2026256
Mar 2026240
Feb 2026240
Jan 2026240
Dec 2025240
Nov 2025240
Oct 2025260
Sept 2025285
Aug 2025320
Jul 2025320
Jun 2025320
May 2025330
Apr 2025340
Mar 2025333
Feb 2025340
Jan 2025334
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024315
Oct 2024325
Sept 2024360
Aug 2024515
Jul 2024492
Jun 2024432
May 2024360
Apr 2024360
Mar 2024347
Feb 2024330
Jan 2024320
Dec 2023313
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023322
Sept 2023397
Nov 2022204
Oct 2022275
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022321
May 2022341
Apr 2022358
Nov 2021245
Oct 2021245
Sept 2021320
Aug 2021320
Jul 2021317
Jun 2021311
May 2021306
Apr 2021320
Dec 2020199
Nov 2020245
Oct 2020243
Sept 2020295
Aug 2020351
Jul 2020334
Jun 2020273
May 2020257
Mar 2020247
Feb 2020236
Jan 2020222
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019212
Oct 2019194
Sept 2019222
Aug 2019205
Jul 2019233
Jun 2019224
Apr 2019230
Mar 2019223
Feb 2019230
Jan 2019230
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018280
Mar 2018260
Dec 2017260
Nov 2017240
Oct 2017240
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017360
Jul 2017360
Jun 2017350
May 2017300
Apr 2017320
Mar 2017275
Feb 2017254
Jan 2017240
Nov 2016238
Oct 2016238
Aug 2016298
Jul 2016258
Jun 2016240
May 2016240
Apr 2016218
Mar 2016228
Feb 2016208
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015218
Sept 2015218
Aug 2015227
Jul 2015239
Jun 2015248
Apr 2015238
Mar 2015198
Feb 2015198
Jan 2015198
Nov 2014205
Oct 2014238
Sept 2014240
Aug 2014250
Jul 2014280
Jun 2014282
May 2014282
Apr 2014282
Mar 2014289
Feb 2014282
Jan 2014280
Dec 2013267
Nov 2013298
Sept 2013279
Aug 2013293
Jul 2013317
Jun 2013298
May 2013278
Apr 2013298
Mar 2013277
Feb 2013277
Jan 2013260
Dec 2012251
Nov 2012278
Oct 2012245
Sept 2012304
Aug 2012332
Jul 2012338
May 2012310
Apr 2012300
Mar 2012276
Feb 2012259
Jan 2012263
Dec 2011250
Nov 2011220
Oct 2011213
Sept 2011215
Jul 2011201
Jun 2011214
May 2011227
Apr 2011202
Mar 2011202
Jan 2011208
Dec 2010202
Nov 2010179
Oct 2010195
Sept 2010211
Aug 2010237
Jul 2010235
Jun 2010221
May 2010221
Apr 2010242
Mar 2010242
Feb 2010240
Jan 2010223
Dec 2009228
Nov 2009249
Oct 2009228
Aug 2009273
Jul 2009250
Jun 2009242
May 2009239
Apr 2009235
Mar 2009226
Feb 2009223
Jan 2009237
Dec 2008201
Nov 2008184
Oct 2008167
Sept 2008214
Aug 2008233
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008195
May 2008179
Apr 2008182
Mar 2008179
Feb 2008170
Jan 2008167
Dec 2007161
Nov 2007161
Oct 2007168
Sept 2007171
Aug 2007176
Jul 2007181
Jun 2007175
May 2007171
Apr 2007169
Mar 2007171
Feb 2007179
Jan 2007171
Dec 2006160
Nov 2006170
Oct 2006164
Sept 2006182
Aug 2006202
Jul 2006212
Jun 2006187
May 2006189
Apr 2006189
Mar 2006186
Feb 2006193
Jan 2006182
Dec 2005170
Nov 2005159
Oct 2005168
Sept 2005203
Aug 2005345
Jul 2005331
Jun 2005270
May 2005246
Apr 2005235
Mar 2005201
Feb 2005206
Jan 2005191
Dec 2004163
Nov 2004176
Oct 2004170
Sept 2004154
Aug 2004167
Jul 2004176
Jun 2004159
May 2004166
Apr 2004157
Mar 2004143
Feb 2004146
Jan 2004135
Dec 2003127
Nov 2003127
Oct 2003127
Sept 2003135
Aug 2003145
Jul 2003161
Jun 2003184
May 2003192
Apr 2003194
Mar 2003194
Feb 2003186
Jan 2003169
Dec 2002167
Nov 2002175
Oct 2002156
Sept 2002229
Aug 2002260
Jul 2002256
Jun 2002244
May 2002203
Apr 2002204
Mar 2002204
Feb 2002203
Jan 2002169
Dec 2001142
Nov 2001144
Oct 2001147
Sept 2001204
Aug 2001244
Jul 2001249
Jun 2001250
May 2001217
Apr 2001236
Mar 2001211
Feb 2001163
Jan 2001144
Dec 2000167
Nov 2000148
Oct 2000148
Sept 2000144
Aug 2000143
Jul 2000143
Jun 2000147
May 2000148
Apr 2000154
Mar 2000129
Feb 2000129
Jan 2000167
Dec 1999119
Nov 1999112
Oct 1999115
Sept 1999115
Aug 1999125
Jul 1999138
Jun 1999113
May 1999126
Feb 1999126
Jan 1999127
Dec 1998116
Nov 1998127
Oct 1998128
Sept 1998179
Aug 1998260
Jul 1998244
Jun 1998249
May 1998250
Apr 1998251
Mar 1998217
Feb 1998208
Jan 1998195
Dec 1997168
Nov 1997165
Oct 1997166
Sept 1997157
Aug 1997209
Jul 1997208
Jun 1997187
May 1997188
Apr 1997181
Mar 1997169
Feb 1997172
Jan 1997129
Dec 1996129
Nov 1996120
Oct 1996113
Sept 1996156
Aug 1996156
Jul 1996141
Jun 1996141
May 1996151
Apr 1996141
Mar 1996101
Feb 1996101
Jan 1996108
Dec 1995113
Nov 1995101
Oct 199591
Sept 199591
Aug 199597
Jul 199591
Jun 199581
May 199582
Apr 199581
Mar 199581
Feb 199581
Jan 199562
Dec 199458
Nov 199464
Oct 199465
Sept 199481
Aug 1994104
Jul 1994103
Jun 1994103
May 199481
Apr 199481
Mar 199482
Feb 199483
Jan 199474

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-617-73-retail-kg.