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Maize in Tera

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 31% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 12% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–285

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

188–315

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tera: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 476); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 234–278 254 219–301 373 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–285 244 185–324 349 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–285 231 147–347 323 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 191–309 239 153–429 337 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 188–315 240 160–476 343 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026265
Aug 2026261
Jul 2026269
Jun 2026261
May 2026223
Apr 2026241
Mar 2026242
Feb 2026261
Jan 2026261
Dec 2025299
Nov 2025279
Oct 2025288
Sept 2025289
Aug 2025299
Jul 2025336
Jun 2025336
May 2025336
Apr 2025336
Mar 2025336
Feb 2025336
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024306
Nov 2024289
Oct 2024308
Sept 2024452
Aug 2024415
Jul 2024418
Jun 2024396
May 2024373
Apr 2024343
Mar 2024336
Feb 2024336
Jan 2024317
Dec 2023299
Nov 2023299
Oct 2023323
Sept 2023368
Aug 2023352
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023324
May 2023299
Apr 2023299
Mar 2023299
Feb 2023294
Jan 2023293
Dec 2022298
Nov 2022258
Oct 2022336
Sept 2022336
Aug 2022336
Jul 2022336
Jun 2022332
May 2022331
Apr 2022331
Mar 2022272
Feb 2022299
Jan 2022299
Dec 2021299
Nov 2021261
Oct 2021278
Sept 2021294
Aug 2021274
Jul 2021261
Jun 2021249
May 2021249
Apr 2021224
Mar 2021224
Feb 2021224
Jan 2021230
Dec 2020228
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020224
Sept 2020224
Aug 2020224
Jul 2020206
Jun 2020187
May 2020187
Apr 2020187
Mar 2020187
Feb 2020153
Jan 2020187
Dec 2019189
Nov 2019189
Oct 2019187
Sept 2019187
Aug 2019187
Jul 2019180
Jun 2019189
May 2019187
Apr 2019187
Mar 2019187
Jan 2019221
Oct 2018221
Sept 2018221
Aug 2018224
Jun 2018224
May 2018224
Apr 2018224
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018227
Jan 2018227
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017187
Oct 2017202
Sept 2017221
Jul 2017224
Jun 2017224
May 2017224
Apr 2017224
Mar 2017212
Feb 2017184
Jan 2017185
Nov 2016224
Oct 2016224
Sept 2016224
Aug 2016224
Jul 2016224
Jun 2016204
May 2016184
Apr 2016187
Mar 2016187
Feb 2016187
Jan 2016189
Dec 2015189
Oct 2015188
Sept 2015187
Aug 2015179
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015196
May 2015205
Apr 2015183
Mar 2015184
Feb 2015196
Jan 2015180
Nov 2014187
Oct 2014187
Sept 2014187
Aug 2014187
Jul 2014187
Jun 2014187
May 2014217
Apr 2014217
Mar 2014224
Feb 2014224
Jan 2014222
Dec 2013221
Nov 2013187
Oct 2013198
Sept 2013221
Aug 2013218
Jul 2013218
Jun 2013221
May 2013224
Apr 2013224
Mar 2013223
Jan 2013224
Dec 2012224
Nov 2012222
Oct 2012221
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012256
Jul 2012257
May 2012261
Apr 2012224
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011212
Oct 2011184
Sept 2011184
Jul 2011184
Jun 2011187
May 2011187
Apr 2011187
Mar 2011187
Jan 2011184
Dec 2010186
Nov 2010187
Aug 2010187
Jul 2010184
Jun 2010224
May 2010194
Apr 2010202
Mar 2010220
Feb 2010221
Jan 2010221
Dec 2009210
Nov 2009221
Oct 2009224
Sept 2009263
Aug 2009242
Jul 2009235
Jun 2009224
May 2009224
Apr 2009217
Mar 2009217
Feb 2009224
Jan 2009222

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-618-51-retail-kg.