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Rice (imported) in Tera

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 9% above the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

482–574

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

459–600

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 482 and 574 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 459 and 600 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tera: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 482 and 574 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 459 and 600 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 513–561 545 485–580 614 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 494–562 542 455–625 607 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 482–574 536 462–664 600 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 466–591 535 441–706 619 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 459–600 534 408–699 636 –
Price history (184 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026521
Aug 2026547
Jul 2026556
Jun 2026556
May 2026556
Apr 2026556
Mar 2026541
Feb 2026539
Jan 2026535
Dec 2025541
Nov 2025541
Oct 2025541
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025571
Jul 2025616
Jun 2025593
May 2025608
Apr 2025629
Mar 2025668
Feb 2025675
Jan 2025680
Dec 2024704
Nov 2024689
Oct 2024685
Sept 2024685
Aug 2024731
Jul 2024707
Jun 2024657
Apr 2024597
Mar 2024645
Feb 2024651
Jan 2024608
Dec 2023541
Nov 2023535
Oct 2023615
Sept 2023608
Aug 2023642
Jul 2023540
Jun 2023508
May 2023428
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023395
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022407
Nov 2022433
Oct 2022405
Sept 2022428
Aug 2022432
Jul 2022411
Jun 2022411
May 2022445
Apr 2022473
Mar 2022473
Feb 2022473
Jan 2022473
Dec 2021439
Nov 2021390
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021411
Aug 2021405
Jul 2021407
Jun 2021409
Apr 2021405
Mar 2021405
Feb 2021405
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020405
Oct 2020395
Sept 2020395
Aug 2020395
Jul 2020411
Jun 2020405
May 2020405
Apr 2020405
Mar 2020405
Feb 2020411
Jan 2020405
Dec 2019395
Nov 2019395
Oct 2019372
Sept 2019372
Aug 2019372
Jul 2019450
Apr 2019405
Mar 2019405
Jan 2019405
Oct 2018405
Sept 2018405
Aug 2018411
May 2018411
Apr 2018411
Mar 2018405
Feb 2018405
Jan 2018405
Dec 2017405
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017405
Jul 2017414
Apr 2017411
Mar 2017405
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017405
Nov 2016405
Oct 2016405
Sept 2016411
Aug 2016405
Jul 2016405
May 2016411
Apr 2016405
Mar 2016405
Feb 2016405
Jan 2016394
Dec 2015405
Oct 2015395
Sept 2015395
Aug 2015406
Jul 2015401
Jun 2015394
May 2015394
Apr 2015388
Mar 2015390
Feb 2015423
Jan 2015385
Nov 2014395
Oct 2014396
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014395
Jul 2014396
May 2014395
Apr 2014395
Mar 2014395
Feb 2014395
Jan 2014395
Dec 2013395
Nov 2013405
Oct 2013402
Sept 2013395
Aug 2013403
Jul 2013405
May 2013395
Apr 2013405
Mar 2013385
Jan 2013395
Dec 2012395
Nov 2012405
Oct 2012405
Sept 2012390
Aug 2012390
Jul 2012390
May 2012395
Apr 2012428
Dec 2011414
Nov 2011442
Oct 2011457
Sept 2011458
Jul 2011445
May 2011446
Mar 2011395
Jan 2011395
Dec 2010398
Nov 2010390
Oct 2010393
Sept 2010395
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010395
Jun 2010417
May 2010448
Apr 2010433
Mar 2010452
Feb 2010466
Jan 2010461
Dec 2009467
Nov 2009473
Oct 2009469
Sept 2009474
Aug 2009461
Jul 2009461
May 2009471
Apr 2009437
Mar 2009455
Feb 2009479
Jan 2009479

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-618-64-retail-kg.