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Sorghum in Tera

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Far above the national price. In August 2026 the price here was 47% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 16% above). That is far above its usual distance: prices that separate from the rest of the country can point to a cut-off area, but also to a data error. How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

217–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

216–367

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 35% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 216 and 367 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tera: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 35% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 216 and 367 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 531); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 282–358 328 251–373 389 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 239–350 300 220–376 356 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 217–342 258 180–424 306 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 205–346 254 170–525 295 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 216–367 280 185–531 334 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026294
Aug 2026348
Jul 2026354
Jun 2026294
May 2026258
Apr 2026257
Mar 2026254
Feb 2026255
Jan 2026257
Dec 2025245
Nov 2025246
Oct 2025277
Sept 2025280
Aug 2025284
Jul 2025327
Jun 2025322
May 2025336
Apr 2025333
Mar 2025331
Feb 2025327
Jan 2025330
Dec 2024313
Nov 2024337
Oct 2024416
Sept 2024455
Aug 2024447
Jul 2024465
Jun 2024440
May 2024363
Apr 2024373
Mar 2024348
Feb 2024331
Jan 2024305
Dec 2023294
Nov 2023290
Oct 2023336
Sept 2023362
Aug 2023365
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023341
May 2023290
Apr 2023299
Mar 2023299
Feb 2023294
Jan 2023266
Dec 2022252
Nov 2022165
Oct 2022294
Sept 2022334
Aug 2022336
Jul 2022652Data error
Jun 2022325
May 2022321
Apr 2022326
Mar 2022302
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022271
Dec 2021257
Nov 2021244
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021269
Aug 2021260
Jul 2021254
Jun 2021242
May 2021242
Apr 2021229
Mar 2021221
Feb 2021223
Dec 2020145
Nov 2020190
Oct 2020233
Sept 2020277
Aug 2020257
Jul 2020244
Jun 2020213
May 2020206
Apr 2020206
Mar 2020186
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020182
Dec 2019183
Nov 2019183
Oct 2019197
Sept 2019202
Aug 2019203
Jul 2019181
Jun 2019200
May 2019186
Apr 2019184
Mar 2019184
Jan 2019224
Oct 2018224
Sept 2018243
Aug 2018256
Jun 2018224
May 2018224
Apr 2018223
Mar 2018223
Feb 2018223
Jan 2018223
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017217
Oct 2017221
Sept 2017257
Jul 2017258
Jun 2017224
May 2017219
Apr 2017222
Mar 2017187
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017187
Nov 2016221
Oct 2016221
Sept 2016237
Aug 2016241
Jul 2016241
Jun 2016214
May 2016187
Apr 2016183
Mar 2016183
Feb 2016183
Jan 2016183
Dec 2015183
Oct 2015180
Sept 2015178
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015177
Jun 2015181
May 2015181
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015174
Feb 2015224
Jan 2015178
Nov 2014177
Oct 2014181
Sept 2014196
Aug 2014203
Jul 2014196
Jun 2014184
May 2014210
Apr 2014216
Mar 2014219
Feb 2014219
Jan 2014192
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013224
Oct 2013190
Sept 2013213
Aug 2013213
Jul 2013214
Jun 2013216
May 2013213
Apr 2013214
Mar 2013214
Jan 2013165
Dec 2012138
Nov 2012156
Oct 2012171
Sept 2012293
Aug 2012271
Jul 2012250
May 2012205
Apr 2012208
Dec 2011213
Nov 2011190
Oct 2011176
Sept 2011174
Jul 2011174
Jun 2011174
May 2011173
Apr 2011171
Mar 2011187
Jan 2011171
Dec 2010143
Nov 2010179
Oct 2010179
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010186
Jul 2010176
Jun 2010186
May 2010176
Apr 2010182
Mar 2010177
Feb 2010176
Jan 2010178
Dec 2009170
Nov 2009217
Oct 2009199
Sept 2009234
Aug 2009241
Jul 2009236
Jun 2009214
May 2009210
Apr 2009210
Mar 2009211
Feb 2009210
Jan 2009211

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-618-65-retail-kg.