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Millet in Tera

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 33% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 15% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

244–353

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

254–382

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 254 and 382 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tera: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 254 and 382 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 319–381 352 276–389 410 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 261–355 296 218–358 331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 244–353 288 225–358 310 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 246–366 291 222–452 329 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 254–382 302 223–463 347 –
Price history (173 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026362
Jul 2026361
Jun 2026357
May 2026357
Apr 2026321
Mar 2026304
Feb 2026288
Jan 2026283
Dec 2025286
Nov 2025286
Oct 2025286
Aug 2025321
Jul 2025357
Jun 2025361
May 2025339
Apr 2025341
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025327
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024344
Oct 2024355
Aug 2024499
Jul 2024493
Jun 2024435
May 2024414
Apr 2024364
Mar 2024348
Feb 2024346
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023286
Nov 2023286
Aug 2023355
Jul 2023357
Jun 2023354
May 2023317
Apr 2023317
Mar 2023308
Feb 2023294
Jan 2023294
Dec 2022285
Nov 2022221
Oct 2022309
Aug 2022420
Jul 2022429
Jun 2022402
May 2022393
Apr 2022361
Mar 2022342
Feb 2022321
Jan 2022335
Dec 2021336
Nov 2021286
Sept 2021282
Aug 2021290
Jul 2021287
Jun 2021284
May 2021275
Apr 2021254
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021248
Jan 2021231
Dec 2020188
Nov 2020221
Sept 2020294
Aug 2020292
Jul 2020269
Jun 2020244
May 2020236
Apr 2020236
Mar 2020218
Feb 2020221
Jan 2020219
Dec 2019218
Nov 2019214
Aug 2019236
Jul 2019218
Jun 2019240
May 2019234
Apr 2019237
Mar 2019238
Jan 2019219
Aug 2018292
Jun 2018288
May 2018288
Apr 2018278
Mar 2018257
Feb 2018257
Jan 2018257
Dec 2017214
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017324
Jul 2017295
Jun 2017296
May 2017259
Apr 2017256
Mar 2017242
Feb 2017224
Jan 2017214
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016252
Aug 2016239
Jul 2016239
Jun 2016238
May 2016237
Apr 2016214
Mar 2016211
Feb 2016210
Jan 2016216
Dec 2015216
Oct 2015229
Aug 2015223
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015221
May 2015212
Apr 2015213
Mar 2015214
Feb 2015214
Jan 2015220
Oct 2014238
Sept 2014234
Aug 2014238
Jul 2014241
Jun 2014239
May 2014229
Apr 2014229
Mar 2014254
Feb 2014254
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013188
Nov 2013205
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013239
Jun 2013230
May 2013246
Apr 2013211
Mar 2013205
Jan 2013165
Dec 2012173
Aug 2012318
Jul 2012332
May 2012285
Apr 2012274
Dec 2011235
Nov 2011190
Oct 2011187
Jul 2011184
Jun 2011177
May 2011175
Apr 2011179
Mar 2011171
Jan 2011174
Dec 2010139
Aug 2010213
Jul 2010214
Jun 2010221
May 2010227
Apr 2010214
Mar 2010210
Feb 2010212
Jan 2010201
Dec 2009177
Nov 2009179
Oct 2009195
Sept 2009244
Aug 2009248
Jul 2009246
Jun 2009211
May 2009211
Apr 2009211
Mar 2009209
Feb 2009211
Jan 2009209

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-618-73-retail-kg.