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Maize in Tessaoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

125–202

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

115–212

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 125 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 115 and 212 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tessaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 125 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 115 and 212 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 145–193 170 138–209 274 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 133–195 153 116–214 247 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 125–202 148 108–256 246 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 122–210 151 100–286 250 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 115–212 152 93.7–290 249 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026190
Aug 2026185
Jul 2026187
Jun 2026192
May 2026154
Apr 2026154
Mar 2026158
Feb 2026154
Jan 2026144
Dec 2025150
Nov 2025173
Oct 2025183
Sept 2025206
Aug 2025212
Jul 2025257
Jun 2025280
May 2025282
Apr 2025267
Mar 2025270
Feb 2025279
Jan 2025288
Dec 2024283
Nov 2024296
Oct 2024291
Sept 2024367
Aug 2024430
Jul 2024446
Jun 2024421
May 2024358
Apr 2024344
Mar 2024295
Feb 2024296
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023270
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023329
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023288
May 2023245
Apr 2023240
Mar 2023231
Feb 2023231
Jan 2023231
Dec 2022236
Nov 2022263
Oct 2022219
Sept 2022231
Aug 2022236
Jul 2022250
Jun 2022260
May 2022260
Apr 2022262
Mar 2022265
Feb 2022269
Jan 2022269
Dec 2021240
Nov 2021201
Oct 2021192
Sept 2021272
Aug 2021301
Jul 2021288
Jun 2021262
May 2021262
Apr 2021231
Mar 2021231
Feb 2021240
Dec 2020244
Nov 2020202
Oct 2020231
Sept 2020231
Aug 2020233
Jul 2020212
Jun 2020214
May 2020209
Mar 2020183
Feb 2020179
Jan 2020173
Dec 2019173
Nov 2019173
Oct 2019173
Sept 2019164
Aug 2019159
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019164
May 2019173
Apr 2019173
Mar 2019173
Feb 2019173
Jan 2019173
Dec 2018173
Nov 2018173
Oct 2018173
Sept 2018212
Aug 2018212
Jul 2018212
May 2018192
Apr 2018192
Feb 2018173
Jan 2018173
Dec 2017173
Nov 2017173
Oct 2017167
Sept 2017167
Aug 2017218
Jul 2017231
Jun 2017231
May 2017240
Apr 2017240
Mar 2017202
Jan 2017192
Nov 2016185
Oct 2016185
Sept 2016196
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016202
Jun 2016186
May 2016173
Apr 2016173
Mar 2016173
Feb 2016154
Jan 2016163
Dec 2015170
Oct 2015173
Sept 2015169
Aug 2015169
Jul 2015166
Jun 2015164
May 2015160
Apr 2015156
Mar 2015154
Feb 2015154
Nov 2014184
Oct 2014188
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014193
Jul 2014194
Jun 2014195
May 2014196
Apr 2014202
Mar 2014202
Feb 2014215
Jan 2014202
Dec 2013239
Nov 2013241
Oct 2013247
Sept 2013249
Aug 2013248
Jul 2013248
Jun 2013246
May 2013245
Apr 2013245
Mar 2013238
Jan 2013221
Dec 2012232
Nov 2012234
Oct 2012234
Sept 2012233
Aug 2012226
Jul 2012214
May 2012209
Apr 2012205
Dec 2011192
Nov 2011189
Oct 2011198
Sept 2011198
Jul 2011208
Jun 2011208
May 2011212
Apr 2011191
Feb 2011171
Jan 2011171
Dec 2010172
Nov 2010172
Oct 2010179
Sept 2010179
Aug 2010219
Jul 2010226
Jun 2010216
May 2010202
Apr 2010207
Mar 2010189
Feb 2010190
Jan 2010172
Dec 2009204
Nov 2009169
Oct 2009191
Sept 2009192
Aug 2009231
Jul 2009226
Jun 2009209
May 2009190
Apr 2009194
Mar 2009209
Feb 2009212
Jan 2009212

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-619-51-retail-kg.