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Rice (imported) in Tessaoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

444–533

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

420–550

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 444 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 420 and 550 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tessaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 444 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 420 and 550 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 475–517 499 447–540 594 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 455–519 498 417–577 597 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 444–533 496 411–627 607 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 426–544 494 381–701 598 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 420–550 494 379–634 604 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026440
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025460
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025525
Jul 2025525
Jun 2025583
May 2025650
Apr 2025650
Mar 2025650
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024650
Sept 2024650
Aug 2024725
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024700
May 2024650
Apr 2024650
Mar 2024660
Feb 2024675
Jan 2024656
Dec 2023650
Nov 2023650
Oct 2023650
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023588
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023467
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022512
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020451
Nov 2020475
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019500
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019425
Jan 2019425
Dec 2018425
Nov 2018425
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018425
Jul 2018413
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017417
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016450
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015475
May 2015475
Apr 2015475
Mar 2015475
Feb 2015475
Jan 2015475
Nov 2014475
Oct 2014492
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011483
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011453
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010420
Nov 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010400
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010425
Feb 2010442
Jan 2010425
Dec 2009433
Nov 2009425
Oct 2009425
Sept 2009425
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009456

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-619-64-retail-kg.