Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Sorghum in Tessaoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 41% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 35% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 12% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

108–176

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

104–178

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 108 and 176 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 178 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tessaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 108 and 176 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 178 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 131–175 153 118–180 260 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 112–173 141 94.8–180 220 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 108–176 138 93.3–192 221 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 102–171 132 94.7–221 206 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 104–178 137 95–258 218 –
Price history (188 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026165
Aug 2026155
Jul 2026160
Jun 2026183
May 2026173
Apr 2026173
Mar 2026183
Feb 2026173
Jan 2026146
Dec 2025150
Nov 2025155
Oct 2025181
Sept 2025205
Aug 2025248
Jul 2025260
Jun 2025267
May 2025248
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025280
Feb 2025245
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024246
Nov 2024212
Sept 2024340
Aug 2024415
Jul 2024405
Jun 2024405
May 2024329
Apr 2024312
Mar 2024279
Feb 2024292
Jan 2024278
Dec 2023248
Nov 2023240
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023290
Jul 2023267
Jun 2023213
May 2023192
Apr 2023185
Mar 2023212
Feb 2023212
Jan 2023151
Dec 2022162
Nov 2022190
Oct 2022219
Sept 2022210
Aug 2022220
Jul 2022240
Jun 2022255
May 2022240
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022260
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022245
Dec 2021190
Nov 2021212
Oct 2021269
Sept 2021280
Aug 2021297
Jul 2021270
Jun 2021238
May 2021238
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021227
Feb 2021226
Jan 2021196
Dec 2020160
Nov 2020180
Sept 2020264
Jun 2020208
May 2020193
Mar 2020170
Feb 2020209
Jan 2020166
Dec 2019160
Nov 2019154
Oct 2019140
Sept 2019141
Aug 2019142
Jul 2019144
Jun 2019158
May 2019165
Apr 2019162
Mar 2019167
Feb 2019153
Jan 2019149
Dec 2018158
Nov 2018169
Oct 2018202
Sept 2018188
Aug 2018188
Jul 2018197
May 2018188
Apr 2018183
Feb 2018154
Jan 2018154
Dec 2017149
Nov 2017160
Aug 2017230
Jul 2017231
Jun 2017231
May 2017231
Apr 2017231
Mar 2017212
Jan 2017160
Nov 2016222
Oct 2016130
Sept 2016144
Aug 2016203
Jul 2016137
Jun 2016146
May 2016144
Apr 2016140
Mar 2016134
Feb 2016132
Jan 2016130
Dec 2015125
Oct 2015131
Sept 2015145
Aug 2015159
Jul 2015158
Jun 2015158
May 2015151
Apr 2015132
Mar 2015134
Feb 2015135
Jan 2015132
Nov 2014151
Oct 2014188
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014178
Jul 2014182
Jun 2014180
May 2014178
Apr 2014179
Mar 2014173
Feb 2014171
Jan 2014183
Dec 2013185
Nov 2013222
Oct 2013222
Sept 2013236
Aug 2013241
Jul 2013241
Jun 2013231
May 2013211
Apr 2013202
Mar 2013198
Jan 2013191
Dec 2012181
Nov 2012190
Oct 2012185
Sept 2012239
Aug 2012233
Jul 2012253
May 2012209
Apr 2012205
Dec 2011153
Nov 2011148
Sept 2011130
Jul 2011108
Jun 2011145
May 2011125
Apr 2011126
Feb 2011111
Jan 2011105
Sept 2010157
Aug 2010194
Jul 2010198
Jun 2010179
May 2010179
Apr 2010171
Mar 2010157
Feb 2010157
Jan 2010157
Dec 2009157
Nov 2009157
Oct 2009148
Sept 2009148
Aug 2009185
Jul 2009178
Jun 2009162
May 2009160
Apr 2009154
Mar 2009146
Feb 2009148
Jan 2009146

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-619-65-retail-kg.