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Maize in Tounfafi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 40% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

122–186

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

121–201

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 40% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tounfafi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 40% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 148–183 167 138–192 285 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 133–183 154 114–196 252 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 122–186 149 106–205 242 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 119–194 150 100–252 245 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 121–201 153 102–283 260 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026175
Aug 2026173
Jul 2026180
Jun 2026185
May 2026174
Apr 2026173
Mar 2026178
Feb 2026168
Jan 2026166
Dec 2025184
Nov 2025190
Oct 2025181
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025234
Jul 2025277
Jun 2025269
May 2025275
Apr 2025304
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025302
Jan 2025305
Dec 2024318
Nov 2024287
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024365
Aug 2024426
Jul 2024449
Jun 2024419
May 2024374
Apr 2024366
Mar 2024326
Feb 2024316
Jan 2024303
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023275
Oct 2023313
Sept 2023365
Aug 2023399
Jul 2023365
Jun 2023311
May 2023287
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023282
Feb 2023282
Jan 2023263
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022253
Oct 2022244
Sept 2022263
Aug 2022282
Jul 2022282
Jun 2022282
May 2022283
Apr 2022284
Mar 2022297
Feb 2022303
Jan 2022311
Dec 2021268
Nov 2021226
Oct 2021235
Sept 2021303
Aug 2021327
Jul 2021329
Jun 2021290
May 2021290
Apr 2021265
Mar 2021265
Feb 2021257
Jan 2021223
Dec 2020195
Nov 2020241
Oct 2020238
Sept 2020239
Aug 2020266
Jul 2020261
Jun 2020250
May 2020228
Mar 2020203
Feb 2020204
Jan 2020199
Dec 2019187
Nov 2019187
Oct 2019240
Sept 2019197
Aug 2019206
Jul 2019243
May 2019208
Apr 2019187
Mar 2019211
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019183
Dec 2018184
Nov 2018185
Oct 2018189
Aug 2018210
Jul 2018239
Jun 2018228
May 2018228
Feb 2018219
Jan 2018219
Dec 2017190
Nov 2017191
Oct 2017208
Sept 2017241
Aug 2017269
Jul 2017262
May 2017259
Apr 2017288
Mar 2017256
Feb 2017241
Jan 2017242
Nov 2016191
Oct 2016191
Sept 2016226
Aug 2016249
Jul 2016249
Jun 2016231
May 2016212
Mar 2016192
Feb 2016192
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015205
Oct 2015192
Sept 2015192
Aug 2015187
Jul 2015212
Jun 2015230
May 2015230
Apr 2015215
Mar 2015173
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015189
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014183
Sept 2014190
Aug 2014221
Jun 2014221
May 2014225
Apr 2014233
Feb 2014230
Jan 2014228
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013224
Oct 2013226
Sept 2013247
Aug 2013269
Jul 2013274
Jun 2013269
May 2013269
Apr 2013269
Mar 2013256
Jan 2013236
Dec 2012229
Nov 2012224
Oct 2012217
Sept 2012248
Aug 2012276
Jul 2012279
May 2012228
Apr 2012226
Dec 2011208
Nov 2011205
Oct 2011184
Sept 2011200
Jul 2011221
Jun 2011218
May 2011230
Apr 2011217
Mar 2011189
Feb 2011190
Jan 2011195
Dec 2010202
Nov 2010176
Oct 2010165
Sept 2010190
Aug 2010247
Jul 2010238
Jun 2010226
May 2010229
Apr 2010189
Mar 2010211
Feb 2010208
Jan 2010205
Dec 2009213
Nov 2009204
Oct 2009196
Sept 2009207
Aug 2009231
Jul 2009240
Jun 2009212
Apr 2009217
Mar 2009221
Jan 2009216

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-623-51-retail-kg.