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Rice (imported) in Tounfafi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

460–536

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

438–548

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 438 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tounfafi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 438 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 488–524 500 461–549 609 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 470–525 500 456–587 622 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 460–536 500 431–635 612 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 447–550 498 418–697 625 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 438–548 500 386–651 614 –
Price history (191 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026475
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025631
May 2025625
Apr 2025631
Mar 2025638
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024700
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024625
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023700
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022488
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022463
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019475
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018425
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017403
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017430
Jul 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017425
Mar 2017425
Feb 2017425
Jan 2017387
Nov 2016425
Oct 2016425
Sept 2016425
Aug 2016425
Jul 2016425
Jun 2016425
May 2016425
Feb 2016425
Jan 2016425
Dec 2015425
Oct 2015425
Sept 2015425
Aug 2015425
Jul 2015425
Jun 2015425
Apr 2015425
Mar 2015425
Feb 2015425
Jan 2015425
Nov 2014425
Oct 2014425
Sept 2014425
Aug 2014425
Jun 2014425
May 2014425
Apr 2014425
Feb 2014425
Jan 2014425
Dec 2013425
Nov 2013425
Oct 2013425
Sept 2013425
Aug 2013425
Jul 2013425
Jun 2013450
May 2013450
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Nov 2012450
Oct 2012483
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012480
Jul 2012483
May 2012450
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011467
Oct 2011475
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011475
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011450
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010444
Apr 2010400
Feb 2010425
Jan 2010425
Dec 2009425
Nov 2009425
Oct 2009425
Sept 2009425
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-623-64-retail-kg.