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Sorghum in Tounfafi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 40% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 27% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

105–182

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

112–197

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 40% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 182 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 197 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tounfafi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 40% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 182 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 197 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 129–180 153 121–201 235 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 108–177 141 98.4–196 206 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 105–182 139 96–221 205 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 105–186 139 96.4–252 208 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 112–197 146 101–290 227 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026159
Aug 2026173
Jul 2026192
Jun 2026192
May 2026183
Apr 2026172
Mar 2026159
Feb 2026159
Jan 2026145
Dec 2025146
Nov 2025166
Oct 2025186
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025210
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025255
May 2025268
Apr 2025286
Mar 2025285
Feb 2025288
Jan 2025257
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024229
Oct 2024206
Sept 2024263
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024408
Jun 2024377
May 2024356
Apr 2024302
Mar 2024288
Feb 2024274
Jan 2024271
Dec 2023253
Nov 2023215
Oct 2023257
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023308
Jul 2023298
Jun 2023260
May 2023231
Apr 2023253
Mar 2023202
Feb 2023229
Jan 2023192
Dec 2022187
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022248
Sept 2022267
Aug 2022280
Jul 2022290
Jun 2022290
May 2022270
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022271
Feb 2022276
Jan 2022255
Dec 2021212
Nov 2021219
Oct 2021210
Sept 2021244
Aug 2021290
Jul 2021296
Jun 2021269
May 2021269
Apr 2021244
Mar 2021227
Feb 2021242
Jan 2021242
Dec 2020240
Nov 2020155
Oct 2020155
Sept 2020196
Aug 2020308
Jul 2020293
Jun 2020250
May 2020214
Mar 2020196
Feb 2020158
Jan 2020161
Dec 2019145
Nov 2019145
Oct 2019201
Sept 2019140
Aug 2019167
Jul 2019202
Jun 2019173
May 2019174
Apr 2019174
Mar 2019176
Feb 2019137
Jan 2019141
Dec 2018126
Nov 2018126
Oct 2018156
Aug 2018221
Jul 2018231
Jun 2018229
May 2018237
Feb 2018203
Jan 2018193
Dec 2017174
Nov 2017173
Oct 2017136
Sept 2017231
Aug 2017327
Jul 2017258
May 2017260
Apr 2017271
Mar 2017249
Feb 2017219
Jan 2017187
Nov 2016135
Oct 2016108
Sept 2016138
Aug 2016271
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016203
May 2016156
Mar 2016141
Feb 2016137
Jan 2016136
Dec 2015136
Oct 2015156
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015165
Jul 2015174
Jun 2015174
May 2015174
Apr 2015165
Mar 2015155
Feb 2015152
Jan 2015129
Nov 2014121
Oct 2014154
Sept 2014172
Aug 2014194
Jun 2014213
May 2014209
Apr 2014216
Feb 2014211
Jan 2014206
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013198
Oct 2013185
Sept 2013231
Aug 2013313
Jul 2013310
Jun 2013291
May 2013262
Apr 2013266
Mar 2013228
Jan 2013193
Dec 2012152
Nov 2012151
Oct 2012165
Sept 2012218
Aug 2012293
Jul 2012288
May 2012237
Apr 2012168
Dec 2011165
Nov 2011148
Oct 2011146
Sept 2011139
Jul 2011154
Jun 2011152
May 2011167
Apr 2011152
Mar 2011148
Feb 2011149
Jan 2011136
Dec 2010119
Nov 2010128
Oct 2010117
Sept 2010168
Aug 2010237
Jul 2010198
Jun 2010208
May 2010219
Apr 2010168
Mar 2010167
Feb 2010170
Jan 2010158
Dec 2009160
Nov 2009144
Oct 2009160
Sept 2009180
Jul 2009214
May 2009186
Apr 2009174
Mar 2009174
Jan 2009167

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-623-65-retail-kg.