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Maize in Wadata

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

139–207

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

132–215

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 139 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Wadata: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 139 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 169–206 187 155–221 304 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–208 173 144–212 283 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 139–207 161 128–215 253 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 134–208 160 110–241 263 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 132–215 164 112–281 260 –
Price history (187 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026198
Aug 2026194
Jul 2026191
Jun 2026172
May 2026173
Apr 2026172
Mar 2026171
Feb 2026173
Jan 2026183
Dec 2025191
Sept 2025212
Aug 2025260
Jul 2025264
Jun 2025276
May 2025287
Apr 2025287
Mar 2025285
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025302
Dec 2024278
Oct 2024285
Sept 2024363
Aug 2024398
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024416
May 2024376
Apr 2024358
Mar 2024321
Feb 2024290
Jan 2024281
Dec 2023280
Oct 2023315
Sept 2023377
Aug 2023363
Jul 2023304
Jun 2023248
May 2023231
Apr 2023231
Mar 2023231
Feb 2023229
Jan 2023230
Dec 2022231
Oct 2022263
Sept 2022275
Aug 2022294
Jul 2022294
Jun 2022165Data error
May 2022292
Apr 2022292
Mar 2022292
Feb 2022284
Jan 2022252
Dec 2021252
Oct 2021294
Sept 2021301
Aug 2021317
Jul 2021287
Jun 2021239
May 2021239
Apr 2021232
Mar 2021229
Feb 2021228
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020197
Oct 2020192
Sept 2020212
Aug 2020212
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020195
May 2020192
Apr 2020191
Mar 2020191
Feb 2020192
Jan 2020192
Nov 2019192
Oct 2019194
Sept 2019195
Aug 2019196
Jul 2019191
Jun 2019189
May 2019194
Apr 2019195
Mar 2019194
Feb 2019194
Jan 2019192
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018194
Sept 2018195
Aug 2018195
Jul 2018211
Jun 2018213
May 2018212
Apr 2018202
Mar 2018191
Feb 2018192
Jan 2018192
Nov 2017191
Oct 2017194
Sept 2017233
Aug 2017216
Jul 2017223
Jun 2017233
May 2017234
Apr 2017204
Mar 2017192
Feb 2017195
Jan 2017195
Nov 2016195
Oct 2016214
Sept 2016257
Aug 2016217
Jul 2016218
Jun 2016219
May 2016217
Apr 2016196
Mar 2016195
Feb 2016195
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015194
Oct 2015221
Sept 2015213
Aug 2015217
Jul 2015201
Jun 2015192
May 2015193
Apr 2015182
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015198
Jan 2015194
Oct 2014195
Sept 2014195
Aug 2014196
Jul 2014196
Jun 2014195
May 2014205
Apr 2014198
Mar 2014196
Feb 2014196
Jan 2014194
Nov 2013198
Oct 2013198
Sept 2013213
Aug 2013220
Jul 2013220
Jun 2013222
May 2013220
Apr 2013219
Mar 2013214
Jan 2013194
Nov 2012198
Oct 2012214
Sept 2012258
Aug 2012239
Jul 2012240
May 2012217
Apr 2012216
Oct 2011220
Sept 2011214
Jul 2011198
Jun 2011202
May 2011198
Apr 2011190
Mar 2011176
Feb 2011178
Jan 2011195
Dec 2010182
Oct 2010190
Sept 2010199
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010198
May 2010202
Apr 2010177
Mar 2010178
Feb 2010198
Jan 2010198
Nov 2009198
Oct 2009195
Sept 2009238
Aug 2009243
Jul 2009220
Jun 2009218
May 2009216
Apr 2009222
Mar 2009222
Feb 2009216
Jan 2009218

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-624-51-retail-kg.