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Rice (imported) in Wadata

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

467–541

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

437–554

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 467 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 437 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Wadata: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 467 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 437 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–526 502 467–541 609 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 476–533 501 447–556 613 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 467–541 499 440–572 615 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 448–549 498 409–627 617 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 437–554 498 390–646 613 –
Price history (201 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025525
May 2025550
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024650
Nov 2024650
Oct 2024650
Sept 2024663
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024727
May 2024650
Apr 2024638
Mar 2024630
Feb 2024650
Jan 2024650
Dec 2023650
Nov 2023675
Oct 2023650
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023583
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020488
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013425
Nov 2013425
Oct 2013425
Sept 2013425
Aug 2013425
Jul 2013425
Jun 2013425
May 2013450
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Nov 2012450
Oct 2012450
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012438
May 2012450
Apr 2012433
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Jul 2011450
Jun 2011450
May 2011450
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011475
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010400
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010400
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010400
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010400
Dec 2009400
Nov 2009400
Oct 2009400
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-624-64-retail-kg.