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Sorghum in Wadata

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

186–259

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

184–265

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 184 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Wadata: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 184 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 215–258 232 206–276 332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 196–261 224 184–278 315 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 186–259 214 171–305 298 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 184–263 213 156–314 295 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 184–265 215 164–335 293 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026243
Aug 2026240
Jul 2026240
Jun 2026247
May 2026233
Apr 2026229
Mar 2026217
Feb 2026208
Jan 2026233
Dec 2025228
Nov 2025229
Oct 2025233
Sept 2025263
Aug 2025280
Jul 2025305
Jun 2025310
May 2025316
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025317
Feb 2025310
Jan 2025319
Dec 2024308
Nov 2024314
Oct 2024402
Sept 2024473
Aug 2024451
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024400
May 2024373
Apr 2024339
Mar 2024328
Feb 2024316
Jan 2024310
Dec 2023308
Nov 2023340
Oct 2023355
Sept 2023360
Aug 2023377
Jul 2023346
Jun 2023297
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023277
Jan 2023276
Dec 2022294
Nov 2022294
Oct 2022307
Sept 2022309
Aug 2022316
Jul 2022297
Jun 2022294
May 2022294
Apr 2022292
Mar 2022291
Feb 2022288
Jan 2022282
Dec 2021280
Nov 2021245
Oct 2021271
Sept 2021291
Aug 2021294
Jul 2021286
Jun 2021258
May 2021258
Apr 2021248
Mar 2021257
Feb 2021248
Jan 2021240
Dec 2020235
Nov 2020245
Oct 2020272
Sept 2020277
Aug 2020281
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020236
May 2020230
Apr 2020230
Mar 2020230
Feb 2020237
Jan 2020230
Dec 2019239
Nov 2019243
Oct 2019238
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019238
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019237
May 2019238
Apr 2019237
Mar 2019237
Feb 2019238
Jan 2019238
Dec 2018238
Nov 2018247
Oct 2018237
Sept 2018257
Aug 2018257
Jul 2018257
Jun 2018278
May 2018257
Apr 2018257
Mar 2018233
Feb 2018258
Jan 2018258
Dec 2017278
Nov 2017291
Oct 2017296
Sept 2017316
Aug 2017280
Jul 2017275
Jun 2017275
May 2017286
Apr 2017256
Mar 2017228
Feb 2017240
Jan 2017241
Nov 2016235
Oct 2016245
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016239
Jul 2016238
Jun 2016239
May 2016220
Apr 2016217
Mar 2016219
Feb 2016220
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015243
Oct 2015242
Sept 2015248
Aug 2015244
Jul 2015237
Jun 2015220
May 2015221
Apr 2015224
Mar 2015223
Feb 2015222
Jan 2015222
Nov 2014243
Oct 2014244
Sept 2014245
Aug 2014243
Jul 2014243
Jun 2014245
May 2014246
Apr 2014234
Mar 2014243
Feb 2014243
Jan 2014245
Dec 2013245
Nov 2013247
Oct 2013242
Sept 2013238
Aug 2013235
Jul 2013252
Jun 2013245
May 2013243
Apr 2013242
Mar 2013240
Jan 2013238
Dec 2012241
Nov 2012240
Oct 2012248
Sept 2012282
Aug 2012294
Jul 2012266
May 2012241
Apr 2012239
Dec 2011245
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011208
Sept 2011204
Jul 2011203
Jun 2011200
May 2011204
Apr 2011203
Mar 2011202
Feb 2011195
Jan 2011178
Nov 2010202
Oct 2010200
Sept 2010198
Aug 2010222
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010198
May 2010196
Apr 2010196
Mar 2010199
Feb 2010201
Jan 2010201
Dec 2009207
Nov 2009204
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009235
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009202
Apr 2009219
Mar 2009210
Feb 2009198
Jan 2009210

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-624-65-retail-kg.