Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Millet in Wadata

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

203–292

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

202–300

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 203 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 202 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Wadata: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 203 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 202 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 245–297 270 239–302 345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 218–288 243 195–298 303 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 203–292 235 185–298 289 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 207–296 240 191–307 300 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 202–300 240 180–315 296 –
Price history (204 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026278
Aug 2026283
Jul 2026292
Jun 2026276
May 2026255
Apr 2026240
Mar 2026237
Feb 2026233
Jan 2026233
Dec 2025233
Nov 2025235
Oct 2025246
Sept 2025280
Aug 2025286
Jul 2025311
Jun 2025314
May 2025312
Apr 2025324
Mar 2025333
Feb 2025318
Jan 2025314
Dec 2024330
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024332
Sept 2024390
Aug 2024480
Jul 2024470
Jun 2024424
May 2024381
Apr 2024347
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024301
Jan 2024298
Dec 2023291
Nov 2023298
Oct 2023315
Sept 2023382
Aug 2023351
Jul 2023337
Jun 2023298
May 2023294
Apr 2023293
Mar 2023292
Feb 2023281
Jan 2023273
Dec 2022296
Nov 2022296
Oct 2022309
Sept 2022344
Aug 2022367
Jul 2022343
Jun 2022336
May 2022316
Apr 2022316
Mar 2022316
Feb 2022318
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021319
Nov 2021232
Oct 2021282
Sept 2021298
Aug 2021315
Jul 2021296
Jun 2021296
May 2021296
Apr 2021276
Mar 2021267
Feb 2021253
Jan 2021248
Dec 2020229
Nov 2020232
Oct 2020257
Sept 2020301
Aug 2020311
Jul 2020275
Jun 2020250
May 2020248
Apr 2020247
Mar 2020233
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020220
Dec 2019234
Nov 2019233
Oct 2019235
Sept 2019235
Aug 2019234
Jul 2019233
Jun 2019232
May 2019248
Apr 2019233
Mar 2019234
Feb 2019235
Jan 2019234
Dec 2018234
Nov 2018231
Oct 2018231
Sept 2018280
Aug 2018280
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018292
May 2018272
Apr 2018272
Mar 2018255
Feb 2018253
Jan 2018253
Dec 2017252
Nov 2017256
Oct 2017255
Sept 2017294
Aug 2017292
Jul 2017288
Jun 2017288
May 2017298
Apr 2017274
Mar 2017233
Feb 2017237
Jan 2017236
Nov 2016218
Oct 2016218
Sept 2016257
Aug 2016258
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016241
May 2016232
Apr 2016223
Mar 2016235
Feb 2016218
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015217
Oct 2015218
Sept 2015217
Aug 2015232
Jul 2015235
Jun 2015238
May 2015237
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015218
Feb 2015218
Jan 2015216
Nov 2014238
Oct 2014240
Sept 2014242
Aug 2014261
Jul 2014260
Jun 2014260
May 2014261
Apr 2014262
Mar 2014262
Feb 2014262
Jan 2014260
Dec 2013259
Nov 2013260
Oct 2013259
Sept 2013268
Aug 2013277
Jul 2013278
Jun 2013283
May 2013280
Apr 2013269
Mar 2013262
Jan 2013241
Dec 2012238
Nov 2012240
Oct 2012244
Sept 2012305
Aug 2012334
Jul 2012317
May 2012290
Apr 2012273
Dec 2011218
Nov 2011218
Oct 2011197
Sept 2011199
Jul 2011198
Jun 2011198
May 2011198
Apr 2011199
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011198
Jan 2011153
Dec 2010178
Nov 2010180
Oct 2010204
Sept 2010240
Aug 2010238
Jul 2010238
Jun 2010235
May 2010242
Apr 2010218
Mar 2010218
Feb 2010218
Jan 2010213
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009198
Oct 2009196
Sept 2009238
Aug 2009242
Jul 2009213
Jun 2009216
May 2009214
Apr 2009212
Mar 2009212
Feb 2009212
Jan 2009223

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-624-73-retail-kg.