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Maize in Balayara

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

158–232

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

150–250

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 158 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Balayara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 158 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 181–223 200 166–244 304 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 164–223 184 138–234 268 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 158–232 185 130–260 280 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 154–235 183 127–272 273 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 150–250 185 127–352 283 –
Price history (180 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026203
Aug 2026208
Jul 2026229
Jun 2026229
May 2026208
Apr 2026208
Mar 2026213
Feb 2026208
Jan 2026208
Dec 2025208
Nov 2025206
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025212
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025302
Jun 2025320
May 2025269
Apr 2025295
Mar 2025292
Feb 2025341
Jan 2025357
Dec 2024296
Nov 2024323
Oct 2024301
Sept 2024384
Aug 2024432
Jul 2024455
Jun 2024450
May 2024406
Apr 2024377
Mar 2024333
Feb 2024317
Jan 2024307
Dec 2023285
Nov 2023290
Oct 2023291
Sept 2023378
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023302
Jun 2023292
May 2023248
Apr 2023231
Feb 2023248
Jan 2023251
Nov 2022294
Oct 2022247
Aug 2022317
Jul 2022317
Jun 2022309
May 2022313
Apr 2022326
Dec 2021260
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021273
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021307
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Mar 2021260
Feb 2021247
Jan 2021232
Nov 2020180
Oct 2020207
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020216
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020206
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020181
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019201
Nov 2019178
Oct 2019203
Sept 2019198
Aug 2019207
Jul 2019201
May 2019214
Nov 2018208
Oct 2018198
Aug 2018229
May 2018233
Mar 2018236
Feb 2018215
Jan 2018211
Nov 2017274
Oct 2017207
Sept 2017228
Jun 2017251
May 2017251
Apr 2017254
Mar 2017234
Feb 2017237
Jan 2017231
Nov 2016237
Aug 2016229
Jul 2016229
Jun 2016232
May 2016232
Apr 2016232
Mar 2016206
Feb 2016206
Jan 2016206
Dec 2015206
Oct 2015227
Sept 2015227
Aug 2015232
Jul 2015230
Jun 2015228
May 2015212
Apr 2015213
Mar 2015185
Feb 2015193
Jan 2015210
Nov 2014207
Oct 2014197
Sept 2014213
Aug 2014211
Jul 2014209
Jun 2014209
May 2014207
Apr 2014207
Mar 2014231
Feb 2014210
Jan 2014203
Dec 2013210
Nov 2013214
Oct 2013228
Sept 2013214
Aug 2013232
Jul 2013231
Jun 2013231
May 2013231
Apr 2013227
Mar 2013232
Jan 2013226
Dec 2012227
Nov 2012231
Oct 2012231
Sept 2012254
Aug 2012268
Jul 2012264
May 2012225
Apr 2012228
Dec 2011226
Nov 2011232
Oct 2011234
Sept 2011229
Jul 2011207
Jun 2011208
May 2011210
Apr 2011204
Mar 2011181
Feb 2011186
Jan 2011188
Dec 2010191
Nov 2010184
Sept 2010208
Aug 2010227
Jul 2010209
Jun 2010206
May 2010208
Apr 2010196
Mar 2010194
Feb 2010206
Jan 2010201
Dec 2009206
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009198
Sept 2009196
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009229
May 2009228
Apr 2009228
Mar 2009226
Feb 2009228
Jan 2009228

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-626-51-retail-kg.