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Rice (imported) in Balayara

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

439–544

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

417–563

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 439 and 544 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 417 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Balayara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 439 and 544 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 417 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 478–524 500 442–551 600 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 452–527 499 408–594 594 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 439–544 496 404–636 609 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 429–560 493 383–686 624 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 417–563 492 380–717 595 –
Price history (181 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026525
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026488
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025488
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025538
Jun 2025517
May 2025550
Apr 2025563
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025601
Dec 2024610
Nov 2024613
Oct 2024638
Sept 2024675
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024740
May 2024660
Apr 2024620
Mar 2024600
Feb 2024600
Jan 2024613
Dec 2023650
Nov 2023667
Oct 2023650
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023525
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023467
Nov 2022596
Oct 2022450
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022475
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jun 2021438
May 2021438
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020524
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020433
Jun 2020400
May 2020450
Apr 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019450
May 2019425
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018425
Aug 2018400
May 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016400
Aug 2016425
Jul 2016425
Jun 2016425
May 2016425
Apr 2016425
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015450
Jul 2015450
Jun 2015450
May 2015425
Apr 2015425
Mar 2015408
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014450
Jun 2014450
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013450
Sept 2013450
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013450
Jun 2013450
May 2013450
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012425
Nov 2012425
Oct 2012431
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012450
Jul 2012450
May 2012450
Apr 2012433
Dec 2011412
Nov 2011456
Oct 2011462
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011432
Dec 2010425
Nov 2010400
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010375
Jul 2010375
Jun 2010375
May 2010375
Apr 2010392
Mar 2010383
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010400
Dec 2009400
Nov 2009400
Oct 2009400
Sept 2009425
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009488
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-626-64-retail-kg.