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Sorghum in Balayara

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 11% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

205–287

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

207–305

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Balayara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 230–283 254 224–295 339 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 218–288 249 210–296 326 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 205–287 237 173–302 307 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 201–300 240 175–348 313 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 207–305 245 204–399 321 –
Price history (166 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026259
Aug 2026267
Jul 2026252
Jun 2026266
May 2026246
Apr 2026266
Mar 2026267
Feb 2026256
Jan 2026273
Dec 2025270
Nov 2025281
Oct 2025271
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025265
Jul 2025307
Jun 2025317
May 2025302
Apr 2025313
Mar 2025295
Feb 2025296
Jan 2025324
Dec 2024311
Nov 2024326
Oct 2024396
Sept 2024449
Aug 2024425
Jul 2024475
Jun 2024431
May 2024394
Apr 2024352
Mar 2024324
Feb 2024313
Jan 2024308
Dec 2023290
Nov 2023339
Oct 2023370
Sept 2023377
Aug 2023375
Jul 2023323
Jun 2023313
May 2023293
Apr 2023286
Feb 2023293
Jan 2023296
Nov 2022269
Oct 2022286
Aug 2022333
Jul 2022341
Jun 2022317
May 2022318
Apr 2022309
Dec 2021280
Nov 2021280
Oct 2021247
Sept 2021275
Aug 2021280
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Mar 2021260
Feb 2021247
Jan 2021232
Dec 2020281
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020240
Sept 2020240
Aug 2020256
Jul 2020227
Jun 2020200
May 2020202
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020196
Dec 2019179
Nov 2019171
Oct 2019182
Sept 2019192
Aug 2019216
Jul 2019201
Jun 2019245
May 2019247
Aug 2018232
May 2018253
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018252
Jun 2017271
May 2017271
Apr 2017276
Mar 2017237
Feb 2017237
Aug 2016227
Jul 2016227
Jun 2016209
May 2016208
Feb 2016209
Jan 2016206
Dec 2015233
Oct 2015233
Sept 2015233
Aug 2015233
Jul 2015233
Jun 2015233
May 2015233
Apr 2015233
Mar 2015233
Feb 2015233
Jan 2015233
Nov 2014233
Oct 2014233
Sept 2014233
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014233
Jun 2014233
May 2014233
Apr 2014233
Mar 2014233
Feb 2014233
Jan 2014233
Dec 2013233
Nov 2013233
Oct 2013233
Sept 2013233
Aug 2013254
Jul 2013254
Jun 2013254
May 2013254
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013243
Jan 2013272
Oct 2012244
Sept 2012263
Aug 2012271
Jul 2012270
May 2012252
Apr 2012247
Dec 2011221
Sept 2011211
Jul 2011209
Jun 2011210
May 2011210
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011192
Feb 2011190
Jan 2011176
Oct 2010190
Sept 2010211
Aug 2010231
Jul 2010205
Jun 2010205
May 2010207
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010204
Feb 2010208
Jan 2010212
Oct 2009208
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009243
Jun 2009211
May 2009212
Apr 2009208
Mar 2009212
Feb 2009208
Jan 2009209

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-626-65-retail-kg.