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Millet in Balayara

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

202–297

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

194–313

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 202 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 194 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Balayara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 202 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 194 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 236–295 264 221–299 332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 209–290 246 184–297 304 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 202–297 243 177–302 301 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 190–305 243 149–347 295 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 194–313 251 164–313 318 –
Price history (334 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026283
Aug 2026282
Jul 2026288
Jun 2026322
May 2026293
Apr 2026260
Mar 2026261
Dec 2025266
Nov 2025260
Oct 2025256
Sept 2025255
Aug 2025304
Jul 2025324
Jun 2025320
May 2025312
Apr 2025324
Mar 2025332
Jan 2025338
Dec 2024305
Nov 2024321
Oct 2024294
Sept 2024377
Aug 2024490
Jul 2024470
Jun 2024440
May 2024383
Apr 2024375
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024302
Jan 2024291
Dec 2023273
Nov 2023283
Oct 2023293
Sept 2023374
Aug 2023341
Jul 2023325
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Feb 2023300
Jan 2023302
Nov 2022332
Oct 2022287
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022386
Jun 2022276
May 2022332
Apr 2022329
Dec 2021280
Nov 2021270
Oct 2021272
Sept 2021290
Aug 2021300
Jun 2021280
May 2021290
Apr 2021280
Mar 2021265
Feb 2021280
Jan 2021272
Dec 2020226
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020247
Sept 2020280
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020280
Jun 2020240
May 2020250
Apr 2020240
Mar 2020222
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019228
Nov 2019190
Oct 2019211
Sept 2019203
Aug 2019223
Jul 2019208
Jun 2019247
May 2019248
Nov 2018248
Oct 2018249
Aug 2018289
May 2018289
Mar 2018247
Jan 2018249
Nov 2017252
Oct 2017252
Sept 2017273
Jun 2017315
May 2017315
Apr 2017300
Mar 2017251
Nov 2016229
Aug 2016247
Jul 2016247
Jun 2016245
May 2016227
Apr 2016227
Mar 2016204
Feb 2016204
Dec 2015207
Oct 2015206
Sept 2015216
Aug 2015232
Jul 2015231
Jun 2015232
May 2015225
Apr 2015215
Mar 2015202
Nov 2014218
Oct 2014221
Sept 2014249
Aug 2014248
Jul 2014273
Jun 2014273
May 2014269
Apr 2014267
Mar 2014269
Feb 2014270
Jan 2014273
Dec 2013270
Nov 2013271
Oct 2013242
Sept 2013248
Aug 2013312
Jul 2013301
Jun 2013289
May 2013289
Apr 2013293
Mar 2013292
Feb 2013274
Jan 2013249
Dec 2012271
Nov 2012251
Oct 2012240
Sept 2012315
Aug 2012302
Jul 2012311
May 2012278
Apr 2012251
Jan 2012232
Dec 2011238
Nov 2011227
Oct 2011210
Sept 2011206
Jul 2011222
Jun 2011228
May 2011226
Apr 2011229
Feb 2011208
Dec 2010202
Nov 2010171
Oct 2010163
Sept 2010209
Aug 2010249
Jul 2010254
Jun 2010247
May 2010249
Apr 2010228
Jan 2010226
Dec 2009206
Nov 2009203
Oct 2009201
Sept 2009215
Aug 2009271
Jul 2009257
Jun 2009227
May 2009229
Apr 2009227
Mar 2009228
Dec 2008207
Nov 2008171
Oct 2008208
Sept 2008217
Aug 2008235
Jul 2008227
Jun 2008211
May 2008190
Apr 2008185
Mar 2008184
Jan 2008160
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007126
Sept 2007140
Aug 2007143
Jul 2007141
Jun 2007147
May 2007155
Apr 2007156
Mar 2007153
Feb 2007156
Dec 2006146
Nov 2006143
Oct 2006133
Sept 2006155
Aug 2006183
Jul 2006184
Jun 2006188
May 2006182
Apr 2006183
Feb 2006180
Jan 2006183
Dec 2005174
Nov 2005160
Oct 2005174
Sept 2005208
Aug 2005276
Jul 2005269
Jun 2005261
May 2005232
Apr 2005213
Mar 2005212
Feb 2005185
Dec 2004146
Nov 2004140
Oct 2004135
Sept 2004132
Aug 2004145
Jul 2004142
Jun 2004134
May 2004135
Apr 2004135
Dec 2003125
Nov 2003114
Oct 2003114
Sept 2003128
Aug 2003142
Jul 2003153
Jun 2003164
May 2003161
Apr 2003164
Mar 2003164
Feb 2003163
Jan 2003165
Dec 2002165
Nov 2002149
Oct 2002156
Sept 2002188
Aug 2002241
Jul 2002237
Jun 2002208
May 2002210
Apr 2002194
Feb 2002189
Jan 2002158
Dec 2001136
Nov 2001130
Oct 2001125
Sept 2001166
Aug 2001213
Jul 2001216
Jun 2001204
May 2001206
Apr 2001215
Feb 2001149
Jan 2001146
Dec 2000146
Nov 2000125
Oct 2000121
Sept 2000128
Aug 2000131
Jul 2000128
Jun 2000127
May 2000127
Apr 2000136
Mar 2000130
Feb 2000126
Jan 2000107
Dec 1999106
Nov 1999106
Oct 1999106
Sept 1999104
Aug 1999126
Jul 1999124
Jun 1999122
May 1999124
Apr 1999124
Jan 1999125
Dec 1998105
Nov 1998106
Oct 1998106
Sept 1998104
Aug 1998126
Jul 1998124
Jun 1998122
May 1998124
Apr 1998124
Feb 1998130
Jan 1998125
Dec 1997124
Nov 1997124
Oct 1997127
Sept 1997169
Aug 1997227
Jul 1997225
Jun 1997230
May 1997229
Apr 1997210
Feb 1997188
Jan 1997188
Dec 1996186
Nov 1996166
Oct 1996164
Sept 1996146
Aug 1996203
Jul 1996190
Jun 1996164
May 1996163
Apr 1996155
Mar 1996149
Jan 1996123
Dec 1995125
Nov 1995105
Oct 199597
Sept 1995123
Aug 1995147
Jul 1995136
Jun 1995136
May 1995135
Apr 1995123
Mar 1995106
Jan 1995104
Dec 199496
Nov 199488
Oct 199483
Sept 199468
Aug 199493
Jul 199488
Jun 199482
May 199483
Apr 199483
Mar 199483
Jan 199473

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-626-73-retail-kg.