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Maize in Tillaberi Commune

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

164–244

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

151–256

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 164 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 151 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tillaberi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 164 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 151 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 199–242 217 183–261 345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 180–247 205 160–262 323 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 164–244 196 133–270 304 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–251 195 125–314 303 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 151–256 196 119–351 308 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026205
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026245
Jun 2026223
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026214
Jan 2026217
Dec 2025240
Nov 2025220
Oct 2025240
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025284
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025301
May 2025310
Apr 2025321
Mar 2025322
Feb 2025327
Jan 2025314
Dec 2024327
Nov 2024293
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024406
Aug 2024469
Jul 2024471
Jun 2024448
May 2024411
Apr 2024372
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024338
Jan 2024323
Dec 2023290
Nov 2023318
Oct 2023343
Sept 2023387
Aug 2023367
Jul 2023322
Jun 2023298
May 2023289
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023296
Feb 2023296
Jan 2023296
Dec 2022288
Nov 2022236
Oct 2022275
Sept 2022295
Aug 2022315
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022330
May 2022350
Apr 2022355
Mar 2022354
Feb 2022329
Jan 2022304
Dec 2021302
Nov 2021302
Oct 2021315
Sept 2021354
Aug 2021362
Jul 2021325
Jun 2021280
May 2021280
Apr 2021247
Mar 2021226
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021231
Dec 2020202
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020232
Sept 2020241
Aug 2020245
Jul 2020240
Jun 2020200
May 2020195
Apr 2020202
Mar 2020202
Feb 2020178
Jan 2020208
Dec 2019208
Nov 2019203
Oct 2019204
Sept 2019203
Aug 2019202
Jul 2019189
Jun 2019194
May 2019198
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019206
Jan 2019206
Dec 2018206
Nov 2018233
Oct 2018233
Sept 2018236
Aug 2018237
Jul 2018237
May 2018234
Mar 2018229
Feb 2018213
Jan 2018215
Dec 2017215
Nov 2017213
Oct 2017234
Sept 2017245
Aug 2017247
Jul 2017226
Jun 2017226
May 2017238
Apr 2017229
Mar 2017208
Feb 2017208
Jan 2017208
Nov 2016239
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016228
Aug 2016231
Jul 2016234
Jun 2016236
May 2016236
Apr 2016204
Mar 2016195
Feb 2016202
Jan 2016202
Dec 2015229
Oct 2015224
Sept 2015204
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015193
Jun 2015192
May 2015198
Apr 2015201
Mar 2015202
Feb 2015202
Jan 2015204
Nov 2014207
Oct 2014208
Sept 2014209
Aug 2014213
Jul 2014212
Jun 2014206
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014213
Feb 2014212
Jan 2014215
Dec 2013239
Nov 2013232
Oct 2013239
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013253
Jul 2013254
Jun 2013255
May 2013250
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013252
Jan 2013234
Dec 2012247
Nov 2012252
Oct 2012252
Sept 2012282
Aug 2012289
Jul 2012279
May 2012232
Apr 2012236
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011223
Oct 2011229
Sept 2011228
Jul 2011204
Jun 2011200
May 2011203
Mar 2011201
Jan 2011177
Dec 2010219
Nov 2010189
Oct 2010212
Sept 2010205
Aug 2010208
Jul 2010206
May 2010212
Apr 2010206
Mar 2010206
Feb 2010213
Jan 2010234
Dec 2009239
Nov 2009256
Oct 2009261
Sept 2009249
Aug 2009274
Jul 2009272
Jun 2009265
May 2009253
Apr 2009256
Mar 2009259
Feb 2009256
Jan 2009260

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-627-51-retail-kg.