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Rice (imported) in Tillaberi Commune

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 20% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 11% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

464–650

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

462–664

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 464 and 650 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 462 and 664 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tillaberi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 464 and 650 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 462 and 664 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 515–617 586 496–650 666 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 491–628 582 470–675 672 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 464–650 570 447–708 658 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 450–660 567 445–751 664 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 462–664 572 440–771 658 –
Price history (182 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026600
Aug 2026600
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026500
May 2026600
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026600
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025625
Oct 2025572
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025580
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025638
May 2025600
Apr 2025663
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024620
Nov 2024616
Oct 2024709
Sept 2024705
Aug 2024727
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024750
May 2024750
Apr 2024750
Mar 2024750
Feb 2024750
Jan 2024775
Dec 2023800
Nov 2023800
Oct 2023733
Sept 2023700
Aug 2023688
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022463
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022550
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021517
Feb 2021513
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020513
Sept 2020516
Aug 2020506
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020515
Apr 2020519
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020525
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019381
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
May 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017393
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016404
Dec 2015400
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015410
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014430
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013400
Jun 2013407
May 2013400
Apr 2013405
Mar 2013400
Jan 2013410
Dec 2012412
Nov 2012420
Oct 2012426
Sept 2012420
Jul 2012440
May 2012430
Apr 2012440
Nov 2011460
Oct 2011460
Sept 2011460
Jan 2011381
Aug 2010342
Jul 2010342
May 2010342
Jan 2010400
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009338
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009458
Jan 2009456

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-627-64-retail-kg.