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Sorghum in Tillaberi Commune

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 15% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

178–286

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

171–305

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tillaberi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 232–300 260 218–321 362 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 210–296 244 179–333 331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 178–286 222 153–344 282 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 175–295 223 147–421 288 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 171–305 231 134–444 296 –
Price history (176 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026269
Aug 2026275
Jul 2026308
May 2026265
Apr 2026260
Mar 2026257
Feb 2026257
Jan 2026264
Dec 2025250
Nov 2025241
Oct 2025257
Sept 2025268
Aug 2025299
Jun 2025342
May 2025329
Apr 2025328
Mar 2025321
Feb 2025321
Jan 2025321
Dec 2024257
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024388
Sept 2024456
Aug 2024530
Jun 2024446
May 2024386
Apr 2024371
Mar 2024357
Feb 2024325
Jan 2024298
Dec 2023295
Nov 2023292
Oct 2023373
Sept 2023394
Aug 2023385
Jun 2023361
May 2023308
Apr 2023303
Mar 2023294
Feb 2023268
Jan 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022193
Oct 2022282
Sept 2022308
Aug 2022385
Jul 2022374
Jun 2022296
May 2022345
Apr 2022326
Mar 2022335
Feb 2022317
Jan 2022290
Dec 2021266
Nov 2021269
Oct 2021271
Sept 2021304
Aug 2021323
Jul 2021274
May 2021257
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021223
Feb 2021242
Jan 2021193
Dec 2020229
Nov 2020206
Oct 2020249
Sept 2020299
May 2020229
Apr 2020234
Mar 2020234
Feb 2020186
Jan 2020230
Dec 2019213
Nov 2019213
Oct 2019231
Sept 2019231
Jun 2019228
May 2019227
Apr 2019231
Mar 2019231
Feb 2019222
Jan 2019222
Dec 2018222
Nov 2018283
Oct 2018283
Sept 2018276
May 2018263
Mar 2018260
Feb 2018248
Jan 2018245
Dec 2017245
Nov 2017238
Oct 2017239
Sept 2017276
May 2017258
Apr 2017262
Mar 2017252
Feb 2017223
Jan 2017204
Nov 2016187
Oct 2016250
Sept 2016286
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016226
May 2016226
Apr 2016224
Mar 2016227
Feb 2016208
Jan 2016208
Dec 2015214
Oct 2015222
Sept 2015219
Aug 2015211
Jun 2015222
May 2015222
Apr 2015204
Mar 2015214
Feb 2015208
Jan 2015213
Nov 2014213
Oct 2014223
Sept 2014229
Aug 2014224
May 2014224
Apr 2014224
Mar 2014228
Feb 2014229
Jan 2014212
Dec 2013199
Nov 2013187
Oct 2013187
Sept 2013219
Aug 2013250
Jun 2013252
May 2013246
Apr 2013228
Mar 2013234
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012195
Nov 2012205
Oct 2012234
Sept 2012324
May 2012265
Apr 2012261
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011222
Sept 2011182
Jul 2011179
Jun 2011178
May 2011181
Apr 2011181
Mar 2011157
Jan 2011139
Dec 2010137
Nov 2010126
Oct 2010127
Sept 2010178
May 2010227
Apr 2010227
Mar 2010222
Feb 2010222
Jan 2010220
Dec 2009226
Nov 2009232
Oct 2009224
Sept 2009241
Aug 2009259
Jul 2009248
Jun 2009226
May 2009229
Apr 2009226
Mar 2009222
Feb 2009221
Jan 2009199

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-627-65-retail-kg.