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Millet in Tillaberi Commune

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 12% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 16% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

199–313

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

197–332

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 199 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 197 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tillaberi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 199 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 197 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 253–322 291 228–336 393 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 213–311 253 202–320 325 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 199–313 247 178–329 315 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 199–320 248 175–370 320 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 197–332 251 161–390 332 –
Price history (382 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026287
Aug 2026304
Jul 2026321
Jun 2026318
May 2026274
Apr 2026281
Mar 2026286
Feb 2026272
Jan 2026286
Dec 2025286
Nov 2025286
Oct 2025286
Sept 2025286
Aug 2025321
Jul 2025348
Jun 2025357
May 2025330
Apr 2025357
Mar 2025340
Feb 2025334
Jan 2025337
Dec 2024316
Nov 2024344
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024430
Aug 2024495
Jul 2024467
Jun 2024436
May 2024392
Apr 2024386
Mar 2024352
Feb 2024368
Jan 2024330
Dec 2023321
Nov 2023324
Oct 2023324
Sept 2023394
Aug 2023404
Jul 2023357
Jun 2023357
May 2023356
Apr 2023331
Mar 2023327
Feb 2023304
Jan 2023286
Dec 2022277
Nov 2022233
Oct 2022295
Sept 2022357
Aug 2022402
Jul 2022342
Jun 2022309
May 2022368
Apr 2022368
Mar 2022354
Feb 2022347
Jan 2022369
Dec 2021317
Nov 2021305
Oct 2021274
Sept 2021321
Aug 2021326
Jul 2021293
Jun 2021286
May 2021286
Apr 2021288
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021239
Dec 2020234
Nov 2020246
Oct 2020274
Sept 2020350
Aug 2020346
Jul 2020306
Jun 2020243
May 2020250
Apr 2020264
Mar 2020257
Feb 2020254
Jan 2020214
Dec 2019224
Nov 2019216
Oct 2019232
Sept 2019259
Jul 2019223
Jun 2019256
May 2019257
Apr 2019245
Mar 2019257
Feb 2019254
Jan 2019254
Dec 2018254
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018222
Sept 2018290
Aug 2018321
Jul 2018326
May 2018324
Mar 2018285
Feb 2018246
Jan 2018243
Dec 2017208
Nov 2017215
Oct 2017239
Sept 2017294
Aug 2017259
Jul 2017315
Jun 2017290
May 2017279
Apr 2017269
Mar 2017258
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017214
Nov 2016208
Oct 2016214
Sept 2016287
Aug 2016301
Jul 2016278
Jun 2016252
May 2016258
Apr 2016214
Mar 2016221
Feb 2016221
Jan 2016221
Dec 2015214
Oct 2015214
Sept 2015214
Aug 2015206
Jul 2015209
Jun 2015250
May 2015211
Apr 2015205
Mar 2015221
Feb 2015257
Jan 2015235
Nov 2014214
Oct 2014237
Sept 2014259
Aug 2014260
Jul 2014260
Jun 2014255
May 2014251
Apr 2014250
Mar 2014259
Feb 2014261
Jan 2014227
Dec 2013217
Nov 2013214
Oct 2013204
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013296
Jul 2013294
Jun 2013292
May 2013269
Apr 2013298
Mar 2013261
Feb 2013261
Jan 2013224
Dec 2012224
Nov 2012224
Oct 2012224
Sept 2012368
Aug 2012318
Jul 2012373
May 2012317
Apr 2012261
Mar 2012294
Feb 2012247
Jan 2012282
Dec 2011250
Nov 2011235
Oct 2011205
Sept 2011205
Jul 2011205
Jun 2011205
May 2011208
Apr 2011208
Mar 2011207
Jan 2011159
Dec 2010139
Nov 2010164
Oct 2010146
Sept 2010216
Aug 2010251
Jul 2010250
Jun 2010250
May 2010258
Apr 2010244
Mar 2010250
Feb 2010226
Jan 2010214
Dec 2009214
Nov 2009214
Oct 2009201
Sept 2009232
Aug 2009286
Jul 2009265
Jun 2009250
May 2009249
Apr 2009211
Mar 2009213
Feb 2009214
Jan 2009210
Dec 2008212
Nov 2008184
Oct 2008196
Sept 2008246
Aug 2008249
Jul 2008250
Jun 2008221
May 2008214
Apr 2008212
Mar 2008209
Feb 2008179
Jan 2008176
Dec 2007155
Nov 2007143
Oct 2007161
Sept 2007179
Aug 2007176
Jul 2007180
Jun 2007180
May 2007179
Apr 2007176
Mar 2007174
Feb 2007179
Jan 2007179
Dec 2006179
Nov 2006174
Oct 2006175
Sept 2006184
Aug 2006181
Jul 2006185
Jun 2006192
May 2006178
Apr 2006193
Mar 2006178
Feb 2006179
Jan 2006157
Dec 2005140
Nov 2005141
Oct 2005150
Sept 2005241
Aug 2005302
Jul 2005306
Jun 2005272
May 2005252
Apr 2005215
Mar 2005218
Feb 2005221
Jan 2005180
Dec 2004184
Nov 2004184
Oct 2004178
Sept 2004159
Aug 2004178
Jul 2004170
Jun 2004144
May 2004146
Apr 2004145
Mar 2004145
Feb 2004144
Jan 2004139
Dec 2003136
Nov 2003121
Oct 2003116
Sept 2003140
Aug 2003143
Jul 2003171
Jun 2003179
May 2003179
Apr 2003179
Mar 2003171
Feb 2003184
Jan 2003176
Dec 2002169
Nov 2002184
Oct 2002163
Sept 2002214
Aug 2002252
Jul 2002234
Jun 2002208
May 2002208
Apr 2002205
Mar 2002206
Feb 2002186
Jan 2002167
Dec 2001143
Nov 2001145
Oct 2001150
Sept 2001200
Aug 2001238
Jul 2001229
Jun 2001225
May 2001215
Apr 2001227
Mar 2001196
Feb 2001158
Jan 2001155
Dec 2000137
Nov 2000126
Oct 2000133
Sept 2000136
Aug 2000139
Jul 2000138
Jun 2000150
May 2000136
Apr 2000134
Mar 2000135
Feb 2000141
Jan 2000128
Dec 1999130
Nov 1999123
Oct 1999104
Sept 1999137
Aug 1999157
Jul 1999154
Jun 1999154
May 1999143
Apr 1999143
Mar 1999107
Feb 1999107
Jan 1999107
Dec 199871
Nov 1998107
Oct 1998135
Sept 1998212
Aug 1998243
Jul 1998227
Jun 1998242
May 1998255
Apr 1998244
Mar 1998222
Feb 1998164
Jan 1998165
Dec 1997165
Nov 1997184
Oct 1997154
Sept 1997162
Aug 1997186
Jul 1997190
Jun 1997185
May 1997180
Apr 1997184
Feb 1997121
Dec 199673
Nov 1996110
Oct 1996146
Sept 1996146
Aug 1996184
Jul 1996170
Jun 1996143
May 1996143
Apr 1996192
Mar 199696
Feb 199699
Jan 199698
Dec 199598
Nov 199596
Oct 199594
Sept 1995116
Aug 1995108
Jul 1995104
Jun 1995104
May 199583
Apr 199585
Mar 199590
Feb 199587
Jan 199591
Dec 199492
Nov 199497
Oct 199497
Sept 199497
Aug 199498
Jul 1994106
Jun 199499
May 1994102
Apr 1994103
Mar 199497
Feb 199492
Jan 199470

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-627-73-retail-kg.