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Maize in Dakoro

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

129–204

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

127–216

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 129 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 129 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 158–199 177 145–224 264 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 141–201 162 126–222 241 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 129–204 151 109–249 230 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 126–210 150 109–278 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 127–216 158 118–293 238 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026179
Aug 2026189
Jul 2026189
Jun 2026196
May 2026198
Apr 2026185
Mar 2026170
Feb 2026175
Jan 2026143
Dec 2025165
Nov 2025194
Oct 2025207
Sept 2025218
Aug 2025232
Jul 2025267
Jun 2025264
May 2025261
Apr 2025255
Mar 2025253
Feb 2025279
Jan 2025279
Dec 2024259
Nov 2024248
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024305
Aug 2024393
Jul 2024397
Jun 2024377
May 2024306
Apr 2024311
Mar 2024286
Feb 2024282
Jan 2024269
Dec 2023278
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023269
Sept 2023329
Aug 2023334
Jul 2023307
Jun 2023269
May 2023245
Apr 2023240
Mar 2023236
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023225
Dec 2022226
Oct 2022201
Sept 2022232
Aug 2022237
Jul 2022271
Jun 2022253
May 2022247
Apr 2022254
Mar 2022253
Feb 2022253
Jan 2022245
Dec 2021222
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021201
Sept 2021236
Aug 2021265
Jul 2021274
Jun 2021236
May 2021236
Apr 2021227
Mar 2021220
Feb 2021237
Jan 2021222
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020189
Oct 2020204
Sept 2020214
Aug 2020233
Jul 2020228
Jun 2020215
May 2020203
Mar 2020192
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020176
Dec 2019176
Nov 2019174
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019176
Aug 2019173
Jul 2019174
Jun 2019177
May 2019182
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019182
Feb 2019182
Jan 2019173
Dec 2018164
Nov 2018179
Sept 2018179
Aug 2018226
Jul 2018226
May 2018200
Apr 2018184
Mar 2018179
Feb 2018164
Jan 2018183
Dec 2017182
Nov 2017167
Oct 2017179
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017245
Jul 2017245
Jun 2017255
May 2017255
Apr 2017255
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017216
Jan 2017212
Nov 2016176
Oct 2016232
Sept 2016214
Aug 2016218
Jul 2016212
Jun 2016200
May 2016173
Apr 2016151
Mar 2016170
Feb 2016170
Jan 2016176
Dec 2015173
Oct 2015207
Sept 2015203
Aug 2015168
Jul 2015166
Jun 2015169
May 2015176
Apr 2015164
Mar 2015162
Feb 2015178
Jan 2015178
Nov 2014229
Sept 2014231
Aug 2014231
Jul 2014222
Jun 2014225
May 2014248
Apr 2014247
Feb 2014244
Jan 2014246
Dec 2013247
Nov 2013240
Oct 2013224
Sept 2013237
Aug 2013328
Jul 2013322
Jun 2013277
May 2013267
Apr 2013258
Mar 2013242
Jan 2013210
Dec 2012218
Nov 2012225
Oct 2012248
Sept 2012265
Aug 2012292
Jul 2012304
May 2012304
Apr 2012280
Dec 2011220
Nov 2011216
Oct 2011206
Sept 2011225
Jul 2011212
Jun 2011238
May 2011238
Apr 2011213
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011228
Jan 2011235
Nov 2010209
Sept 2010215
Aug 2010229
Jul 2010242
Jun 2010231
May 2010198
Apr 2010233
Mar 2010209
Feb 2010209
Jan 2010222
Dec 2009228
Nov 2009247
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009228
Aug 2009238
Jul 2009238
Jun 2009228
May 2009228
Apr 2009256
Mar 2009285
Feb 2009285
Jan 2009285

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-628-51-retail-kg.