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Sorghum in Dakoro

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 19% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

137–231

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

134–236

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 236 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 236 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 170–238 204 152–244 260 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 146–230 178 115–252 220 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 137–231 167 122–273 219 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–229 163 125–341 205 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 134–236 168 129–351 207 –
Price history (176 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026190
Aug 2026228
Jul 2026237
Jun 2026210
May 2026190
Apr 2026184
Mar 2026158
Feb 2026156
Jan 2026139
Dec 2025157
Nov 2025174
Oct 2025184
Sept 2025201
Aug 2025208
Jul 2025221
Jun 2025226
May 2025215
Apr 2025208
Mar 2025202
Feb 2025219
Jan 2025211
Dec 2024207
Nov 2024220
Sept 2024390
Jul 2024377
Jun 2024331
May 2024290
Apr 2024270
Mar 2024264
Feb 2024272
Jan 2024216
Dec 2023214
Nov 2023280
Sept 2023279
Aug 2023296
Jul 2023261
Jun 2023203
May 2023203
Apr 2023198
Mar 2023208
Feb 2023205
Jan 2023209
Dec 2022215
Oct 2022212
Sept 2022229
Aug 2022223
Jul 2022239
Jun 2022238
May 2022241
Apr 2022237
Mar 2022240
Feb 2022255
Jan 2022246
Dec 2021201
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021236
Sept 2021248
Aug 2021265
Jul 2021258
Jun 2021229
May 2021229
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021218
Feb 2021237
Jan 2021211
Dec 2020248
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020234
Sept 2020243
Aug 2020248
Jul 2020268
Jun 2020208
May 2020196
Mar 2020173
Feb 2020171
Jan 2020161
Dec 2019155
Nov 2019150
Jul 2019114
Jun 2019130
May 2019130
Mar 2019145
Feb 2019130
Oct 2018188
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018212
Jul 2018226
May 2018231
Apr 2018213
Mar 2018190
Feb 2018204
Dec 2017157
Aug 2017277
Jul 2017265
Jun 2017260
May 2017236
Apr 2017212
Mar 2017190
Feb 2017183
Jan 2017170
Oct 2016168
Sept 2016160
Jun 2016185
May 2016185
Apr 2016127
Feb 2016112
Jan 2016112
Dec 2015104
Oct 2015104
Sept 2015125
Aug 2015106
Jul 2015122
Jun 2015122
May 2015122
Apr 2015119
Mar 2015132
Feb 2015116
Jan 2015120
Nov 2014139
Sept 2014136
Aug 2014180
Jul 2014185
Jun 2014179
May 2014185
Apr 2014178
Feb 2014196
Jan 2014203
Dec 2013212
Nov 2013212
Oct 2013223
Sept 2013230
Aug 2013312
Jul 2013321
Jun 2013257
May 2013249
Apr 2013236
Mar 2013232
Jan 2013208
Dec 2012216
Nov 2012208
Oct 2012184
Sept 2012179
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012268
May 2012262
Apr 2012236
Dec 2011207
Nov 2011171
Oct 2011159
Sept 2011132
Jul 2011122
Jun 2011137
May 2011133
Apr 2011130
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011132
Jan 2011143
Sept 2010261
Aug 2010244
Jul 2010287
Jun 2010226
May 2010250
Apr 2010207
Mar 2010187
Feb 2010181
Jan 2010180
Dec 2009143
Sept 2009156
Aug 2009187
Jul 2009147
Jun 2009122
May 2009131
Apr 2009136
Mar 2009126
Feb 2009140
Jan 2009133

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-628-65-retail-kg.