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Millet in Dakoro

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

144–243

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

148–256

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 181–242 209 164–257 262 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–232 184 126–248 215 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 144–243 186 116–248 220 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 151–247 191 133–275 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 148–256 197 125–281 243 –
Price history (182 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026217
Aug 2026231
Jul 2026260
Jun 2026245
May 2026231
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026193
Jan 2026170
Dec 2025167
Nov 2025177
Oct 2025172
Sept 2025208
Aug 2025259
Jul 2025283
Jun 2025287
May 2025280
Apr 2025259
Feb 2025267
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024238
Nov 2024238
Oct 2024239
Sept 2024273
Aug 2024405
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024341
May 2024317
Apr 2024284
Feb 2024274
Jan 2024233
Dec 2023240
Nov 2023287
Oct 2023235
Sept 2023270
Aug 2023288
Jul 2023276
Jun 2023260
May 2023243
Apr 2023250
Feb 2023221
Jan 2023223
Dec 2022223
Nov 2022200
Oct 2022212
Sept 2022252
Aug 2022265
Jul 2022302
Jun 2022302
May 2022263
Apr 2022267
Mar 2022251
Feb 2022251
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021181
Sept 2021255
Aug 2021268
Jul 2021249
Jun 2021256
May 2021235
Apr 2021230
Mar 2021228
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021204
Dec 2020232
Nov 2020164
Oct 2020162
Sept 2020242
Aug 2020282
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020220
May 2020206
Mar 2020190
Feb 2020176
Jan 2020166
Dec 2019146
Nov 2019139
Oct 2019133
Sept 2019130
Aug 2019141
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019143
May 2019158
Feb 2019164
Jan 2019155
Dec 2018147
Nov 2018143
Oct 2018148
Sept 2018217
Aug 2018224
Jul 2018233
May 2018217
Mar 2018192
Feb 2018204
Jan 2018186
Dec 2017186
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017178
Sept 2017232
Aug 2017289
Jul 2017283
Jun 2017272
May 2017263
Feb 2017214
Jan 2017211
Nov 2016149
Oct 2016167
Sept 2016161
Aug 2016228
Jul 2016233
Jun 2016188
May 2016214
Apr 2016150
Feb 2016164
Jan 2016136
Dec 2015139
Oct 2015141
Sept 2015131
Aug 2015143
Jul 2015145
Jun 2015145
May 2015145
Apr 2015138
Feb 2015126
Jan 2015124
Nov 2014148
Sept 2014153
Aug 2014196
Jul 2014205
Jun 2014196
May 2014196
Apr 2014195
Feb 2014209
Jan 2014219
Dec 2013215
Nov 2013228
Oct 2013240
Sept 2013259
Aug 2013347
Jul 2013338
Jun 2013287
May 2013274
Apr 2013274
Jan 2013234
Dec 2012236
Nov 2012224
Oct 2012208
Sept 2012241
Aug 2012305
Jul 2012302
May 2012293
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011181
Oct 2011191
Sept 2011150
Jul 2011146
Jun 2011164
May 2011185
Feb 2011156
Jan 2011146
Dec 2010196
Nov 2010124
Oct 2010128
Sept 2010153
Aug 2010257
Jul 2010257
Jun 2010237
May 2010221
Apr 2010190
Feb 2010204
Jan 2010196
Dec 2009162
Nov 2009152
Oct 2009162
Sept 2009165
Aug 2009222
Jul 2009204
Jun 2009157
May 2009162
Feb 2009167
Jan 2009170

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-628-73-retail-kg.