Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Sorghum in Zinder Commune

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 9% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 12% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

139–229

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

130–239

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 139 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Zinder Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 139 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 165–228 195 146–242 274 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–235 185 115–251 268 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 139–229 171 114–244 239 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 121–222 158 95–265 204 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 130–239 174 102–281 237 –
Price history (416 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026187
Aug 2026215
Jul 2026188
Jun 2026198
May 2026196
Apr 2026180
Mar 2026168
Feb 2026168
Jan 2026154
Dec 2025178
Nov 2025177
Oct 2025188
Sept 2025187
Aug 2025210
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025232
May 2025236
Apr 2025215
Mar 2025258
Feb 2025252
Jan 2025328
Dec 2024235
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024324
Sept 2024392
Aug 2024417
Jul 2024408
Jun 2024367
May 2024341
Apr 2024330
Mar 2024298
Feb 2024302
Jan 2024282
Dec 2023254
Nov 2023251
Oct 2023302
Sept 2023297
Aug 2023287
Jul 2023261
Jun 2023224
May 2023233
Apr 2023214
Mar 2023210
Feb 2023226
Jan 2023201
Dec 2022170
Nov 2022294
Oct 2022242
Sept 2022245
Aug 2022254
Jul 2022304
Jun 2022296
May 2022289
Apr 2022275
Mar 2022264
Feb 2022266
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021199
Nov 2021207
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021255
Aug 2021289
Jul 2021270
Jun 2021255
May 2021255
Apr 2021226
Mar 2021225
Feb 2021226
Jan 2021197
Apr 2020219
Dec 2019144
Nov 2019145
Oct 2019178
Sept 2019171
Aug 2019156
Jul 2019111
May 2019155
Apr 2019160
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019162
Jan 2019141
Dec 2018139
Oct 2018191
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018201
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018201
May 2018185
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018191
Feb 2018182
Jan 2018182
Nov 2017194
Oct 2017238
Sept 2017266
Aug 2017264
Jul 2017262
Jun 2017257
May 2017246
Apr 2017229
Mar 2017211
Feb 2017217
Jan 2017199
Nov 2016211
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016218
Aug 2016206
Jul 2016181
Jun 2016183
May 2016158
Apr 2016153
Mar 2016141
Feb 2016146
Jan 2016145
Dec 2015145
Oct 2015162
Sept 2015160
Aug 2015157
Jul 2015169
Jun 2015176
May 2015177
Mar 2015149
Feb 2015145
Jan 2015153
Dec 2014155
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014199
Jul 2014206
Jun 2014211
May 2014204
Apr 2014207
Mar 2014210
Feb 2014216
Jan 2014211
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013225
Oct 2013262
Sept 2013236
Aug 2013245
Apr 2013208
Mar 2013214
Jan 2013186
Dec 2012181
Nov 2012201
Oct 2012220
Sept 2012247
Aug 2012242
Jul 2012243
Apr 2012208
Mar 2012188
Feb 2012187
Jan 2012196
Dec 2011170
Nov 2011159
Oct 2011140
Sept 2011123
Aug 2011130
Jul 2011137
Jun 2011137
May 2011147
Apr 2011113
Mar 2011111
Feb 2011119
Jan 2011116
Dec 2010110
Nov 2010136
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010190
Aug 2010207
Jul 2010209
Jun 2010213
May 2010174
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010165
Feb 2010166
Jan 2010170
Dec 2009180
Nov 2009185
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009175
Aug 2009193
Jul 2009192
Jun 2009164
May 2009163
Apr 2009155
Mar 2009154
Feb 2009149
Jan 2009142
Dec 2008135
Nov 2008130
Oct 2008145
Sept 2008176
Aug 2008183
Jul 2008179
Jun 2008165
May 2008150
Apr 2008151
Mar 2008159
Feb 2008138
Jan 2008122
Dec 2007104
Nov 2007104
Oct 2007112
Sept 2007119
Aug 2007124
Jul 2007120
Jun 2007117
May 2007119
Apr 2007121
Mar 2007116
Feb 2007118
Jan 2007115
Dec 2006112
Nov 2006123
Oct 2006128
Sept 2006145
Aug 2006154
Jul 2006158
Jun 2006143
May 2006133
Apr 2006133
Mar 2006128
Feb 2006126
Jan 2006132
Dec 2005126
Nov 2005108
Oct 2005105
Sept 2005192
Aug 2005259
Jul 2005243
Jun 2005214
May 2005185
Apr 2005196
Mar 2005157
Feb 2005150
Jan 2005150
Dec 2004121
Nov 2004115
Oct 2004127
Sept 2004136
Aug 2004139
Jul 2004129
Jun 2004103
May 2004111
Apr 2004114
Mar 2004105
Feb 2004102
Jan 200481
Dec 200371
Nov 200366
Oct 200375
Sept 200366
Aug 200374
Jul 200384
Jun 200389
May 200397
Apr 2003102
Mar 2003100
Feb 2003119
Jan 2003108
Dec 200293
Nov 2002108
Oct 2002134
Sept 2002145
Aug 2002198
Jul 2002211
Jun 2002201
May 2002188
Apr 2002179
Mar 2002169
Feb 2002154
Jan 2002117
Dec 200192
Nov 200191
Oct 200197
Sept 2001135
Aug 2001177
Jul 2001184
Jun 2001165
May 2001160
Apr 2001177
Mar 2001159
Feb 2001132
Jan 2001107
Dec 2000105
Nov 2000100
Oct 2000100
Sept 2000105
Aug 2000100
Jul 2000103
Jun 2000101
May 2000101
Apr 2000100
Mar 200099
Feb 200084
Jan 200069
Dec 199968
Nov 199969
Oct 199968
Sept 199963
Aug 199971
Jul 199987
Jun 199975
May 199976
Apr 199976
Mar 199972
Feb 199962
Jan 199960
Dec 199858
Nov 199869
Oct 199876
Sept 1998153
Aug 1998205
Jul 1998204
Jun 1998163
May 1998161
Apr 1998166
Mar 1998140
Feb 1998136
Jan 1998126
Dec 199794
Nov 199793
Oct 1997100
Sept 1997135
Aug 1997166
Jul 1997158
Jun 1997143
May 1997138
Apr 1997140
Mar 1997124
Feb 1997110
Jan 199799
Dec 199690
Nov 199681
Oct 199695
Sept 199699
Aug 1996114
Jul 1996108
Jun 199693
May 1996103
Apr 199697
Mar 199675
Feb 199673
Jan 199663
Dec 199558
Nov 199553
Oct 199561
Sept 199564
Aug 199577
Jul 199570
Jun 199562
May 199557
Apr 199553
Mar 199552
Feb 199552
Jan 199548
Dec 199442
Nov 199449.5
Oct 199457
Sept 199451
Aug 199463
Jul 199465
Jun 199464
May 199456
Apr 199451
Mar 199450
Feb 199450
Jan 199437
Dec 199332
Nov 199338
Oct 199345
Sept 199349
Aug 199350
Jul 199354
Jun 199349
May 199347
Apr 199342
Mar 199350
Feb 199350
Jan 199350
Dec 199242
Nov 199246
Oct 199247
Sept 199247
Aug 199260
Jul 199268
Jun 199252
May 199247
Apr 199238
Mar 199239
Feb 199239
Jan 199237
Dec 199135
Nov 199134
Oct 199140
Sept 199165
Aug 199170
Jul 199180
Jun 199172
May 199171
Apr 199167
Mar 199164
Feb 199161
Jan 199152
Dec 199048
Nov 199046
Oct 199049
Sept 199042
Aug 199050
Jul 199057
Jun 199048
May 199047
Apr 199047
Mar 199045
Feb 199043
Jan 199041

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-1463-65-retail-kg.