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Sorghum in Agadez Commune

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 34% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 24% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

225–334

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

208–349

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 225 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 349 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Agadez Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 225 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 349 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 269–331 296 253–350 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 243–326 276 197–348 361 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 225–334 267 189–388 340 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 215–341 262 170–451 334 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 208–349 265 171–494 330 –
Price history (416 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026315
Aug 2026317
Jul 2026313
Jun 2026309
May 2026298
Apr 2026281
Mar 2026280
Feb 2026280
Jan 2026290
Dec 2025280
Nov 2025256
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025310
Aug 2025369
Jul 2025390
Jun 2025380
May 2025398
Apr 2025375
Mar 2025359
Feb 2025357
Jan 2025340
Dec 2024313
Nov 2024312
Oct 2024390
Sept 2024473
Aug 2024513
Jul 2024448
Jun 2024400
May 2024348
Apr 2024320
Mar 2024310
Feb 2024322
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023320
Sept 2023337
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023317
Jun 2023317
May 2023317
Apr 2023317
Mar 2023327
Feb 2023317
Jan 2023317
Dec 2022337
Nov 2022337
Sept 2022335
Aug 2022335
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022335
May 2022335
Apr 2022322
Mar 2022324
Feb 2022320
Jan 2022305
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021320
Sept 2021315
Aug 2021305
Jul 2021300
Jun 2021295
May 2021295
Apr 2021259
Mar 2021279
Feb 2021249
Jan 2021243
Dec 2020260
Nov 2020255
Sept 2020390
Aug 2020364
Jul 2020276
Jun 2020238
May 2020238
Apr 2020236
Mar 2020236
Feb 2020218
Jan 2020219
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019240
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019239
Jul 2019240
Jun 2019239
May 2019237
Apr 2019240
Mar 2019231
Feb 2019231
Jan 2019235
Dec 2018254
Nov 2018251
Sept 2018255
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018277
Jun 2018277
May 2018277
Apr 2018252
Mar 2018252
Feb 2018252
Jan 2018252
Dec 2017267
Nov 2017267
Sept 2017309
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017343
May 2017247
Apr 2017247
Mar 2017247
Feb 2017247
Jan 2017235
Nov 2016248
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016208
May 2016208
Feb 2016220
Jan 2016220
Dec 2015249
Sept 2015263
Aug 2015264
Jul 2015235
Jun 2015235
May 2015236
Apr 2015237
Mar 2015235
Feb 2015240
Jan 2015260
Dec 2014291
Nov 2014279
Sept 2014301
Aug 2014315
Jul 2014288
Jun 2014252
May 2014277
Apr 2014277
Mar 2014283
Feb 2014274
Jan 2014255
Dec 2013268
Nov 2013277
Sept 2013280
Aug 2013254
Jul 2013258
Jun 2013260
May 2013258
Apr 2013255
Mar 2013242
Feb 2013236
Jan 2013235
Dec 2012237
Nov 2012237
Sept 2012257
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012247
May 2012237
Apr 2012235
Mar 2012236
Feb 2012237
Jan 2012197
Dec 2011158
Nov 2011158
Oct 2011157
Sept 2011157
Aug 2011158
Jul 2011158
Jun 2011161
May 2011158
Apr 2011159
Mar 2011159
Feb 2011154
Jan 2011157
Dec 2010198
Nov 2010170
Sept 2010235
Aug 2010235
Jul 2010231
Jun 2010232
May 2010233
Apr 2010219
Mar 2010220
Feb 2010226
Jan 2010227
Dec 2009228
Nov 2009230
Sept 2009236
Aug 2009224
Jul 2009211
Jun 2009207
May 2009207
Apr 2009205
Mar 2009204
Feb 2009206
Jan 2009191
Dec 2008181
Nov 2008170
Oct 2008181
Sept 2008201
Aug 2008202
Jul 2008202
Jun 2008188
May 2008176
Apr 2008174
Mar 2008183
Feb 2008162
Jan 2008163
Dec 2007160
Nov 2007158
Oct 2007163
Sept 2007167
Aug 2007165
Jul 2007167
Jun 2007166
May 2007166
Apr 2007169
Mar 2007168
Feb 2007165
Jan 2007165
Dec 2006164
Nov 2006162
Oct 2006173
Sept 2006184
Aug 2006183
Jul 2006183
Jun 2006182
May 2006175
Apr 2006161
Mar 2006175
Feb 2006173
Jan 2006176
Dec 2005161
Nov 2005166
Oct 2005167
Sept 2005223
Aug 2005293
Jul 2005281
Jun 2005235
May 2005229
Apr 2005210
Mar 2005180
Feb 2005160
Jan 2005167
Dec 2004167
Nov 2004167
Aug 2004152
Jul 2004133
Jun 2004128
May 2004123
Apr 2004121
Mar 2004118
Feb 2004108
Jan 200497.1
Dec 200399
Nov 2003100
Oct 2003116
Sept 2003134
Aug 2003128
Jul 2003138
Jun 2003137
May 2003141
Apr 2003136
Mar 2003140
Feb 2003143
Jan 2003131
Dec 2002144
Nov 2002165
Oct 2002184
Sept 2002206
Aug 2002223
Jul 2002200
Jun 2002191
May 2002181
Apr 2002163
Mar 2002158
Feb 2002152
Jan 2002203
Dec 2001134
Nov 2001142
Aug 2001243
Jul 2001202
Jun 2001202
May 2001199
Apr 2001196
Mar 2001178
Feb 2001144
Jan 2001138
Dec 2000128
Nov 2000121
Oct 2000123
Sept 2000127
Aug 2000117
Jul 2000117
Jun 2000127
May 2000122
Apr 2000117
Mar 2000113
Feb 2000114
Jan 2000103
Dec 1999106
Nov 199997
Oct 199998
Sept 1999102
Aug 1999107
Jul 1999104
Jun 199996
May 199995
Apr 199995
Mar 1999102
Feb 199996
Jan 1999105
Dec 1998109
Nov 1998109
Oct 1998130
Sept 1998195
Aug 1998217
Jul 1998195
Jun 1998216
May 1998217
Apr 1998179
Mar 1998169
Feb 1998159
Jan 1998148
Dec 1997159
Nov 1997143
Oct 1997156
Sept 1997168
Aug 1997179
Jul 1997173
Jun 1997161
May 1997160
Apr 1997158
Mar 1997126
Feb 1997126
Jan 1997116
Dec 1996116
Nov 1996118
Oct 1996109
Sept 1996119
Aug 1996125
Jul 1996117
Jun 1996119
May 1996118
Apr 1996102
Mar 199686
Feb 199683
Jan 199683
Dec 199589
Nov 199588
Oct 199578
Sept 199576
Aug 199587
Jul 199586
Jun 199579
May 199575
Apr 199573
Mar 199571
Feb 199571
Jan 199572
Dec 199462
Nov 199470
Oct 199478
Sept 199478
Aug 199483
Jul 199492
Jun 199473
May 199472
Apr 199472
Mar 199472
Feb 199468
Jan 199454
Dec 199352
Nov 199357
Oct 199356
Sept 199363
Aug 199365
Jul 199366
Jun 199366
May 199365
Apr 199368
Mar 199374
Feb 199375
Jan 199374
Dec 199266
Nov 199275
Oct 199272
Sept 199273
Aug 199281
Jul 199277
Jun 199264
May 199260
Apr 199258
Mar 199257
Feb 199259
Jan 199261
Oct 199161
Sept 199179.5
Aug 199198
Jul 199192
Jun 199182
May 199179
Apr 199179
Mar 199181
Feb 199179
Jan 199167
Dec 199061
Nov 199066
Oct 199067
Sept 199066
Aug 199064
Jul 199062
Jun 199053
May 199055
Apr 199055
Mar 199053
Feb 199053
Jan 199056

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-546-65-retail-kg.