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Maize in Dan Issa

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 15% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

113–186

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

107–195

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 113 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 107 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dan Issa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 113 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 107 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 134–180 157 128–197 251 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 113–177 133 103–198 210 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 113–186 134 105–225 228 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 108–191 135 96.9–241 225 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 107–195 140 94.2–250 230 –
Price history (368 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026163
Aug 2026169
Jul 2026193
Jun 2026176
May 2026160
Apr 2026159
Mar 2026156
Feb 2026134
Jan 2026126
Dec 2025146
Nov 2025160
Oct 2025145
Sept 2025183
Aug 2025193
Jul 2025217
Jun 2025242
May 2025232
Apr 2025248
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025256
Jan 2025276
Dec 2024275
Nov 2024267
Oct 2024238
Sept 2024289
Aug 2024385
Jul 2024410
Jun 2024397
May 2024324
Apr 2024344
Mar 2024295
Feb 2024276
Jan 2024304
Dec 2023288
Nov 2023283
Oct 2023249
Sept 2023332
Aug 2023265
Jun 2023313
May 2023232
Apr 2023267
Mar 2023278
Feb 2023282
Jan 2023216
Dec 2022217
Nov 2022280
Oct 2022180
Jul 2022255
Apr 2022258
Mar 2022264
Feb 2022268
Jan 2022268
Dec 2021229
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021236
Sept 2021247
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021286
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021241
Mar 2021241
Feb 2021244
Jan 2021223
Dec 2020196
Nov 2020191
Oct 2020198
Sept 2020240
Aug 2020220
Jul 2020222
Jun 2020205
May 2020190
Apr 2020196
Mar 2020176
Feb 2020208
Jan 2020168
Dec 2019175
Nov 2019174
Oct 2019160
Sept 2019153
Jul 2019152
Jun 2019155
May 2019161
Apr 2019165
Mar 2019181
Feb 2019161
Jan 2019157
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018159
Oct 2018162
Sept 2018196
Aug 2018204
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018204
May 2018212
Apr 2018184
Mar 2018165
Feb 2018170
Jan 2018178
Dec 2017167
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017165
Sept 2017187
Aug 2017249
Jul 2017241
Jun 2017246
May 2017242
Apr 2017228
Mar 2017216
Feb 2017196
Jan 2017191
Nov 2016165
Oct 2016159
Sept 2016221
Aug 2016247
Jul 2016217
Jun 2016210
May 2016194
Apr 2016174
Mar 2016176
Feb 2016160
Jan 2016167
Dec 2015166
Oct 2015192
Sept 2015208
Aug 2015178
Jul 2015154
Jun 2015161
May 2015157
Apr 2015168
Mar 2015141
Feb 2015144
Jan 2015145
Nov 2014163
Oct 2014155
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014185
Jul 2014189
Jun 2014194
May 2014196
Apr 2014195
Mar 2014197
Feb 2014193
Jan 2014189
Dec 2013187
Oct 2013198
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013279
Jul 2013279
Jun 2013281
May 2013267
Apr 2013252
Mar 2013239
Feb 2013229
Jan 2013221
Dec 2012212
Nov 2012223
Oct 2012202
Sept 2012241
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012238
May 2012216
Apr 2012206
Mar 2012197
Feb 2012194
Dec 2011194
Nov 2011184
Oct 2011177
Sept 2011193
Jul 2011205
Jun 2011208
May 2011208
Apr 2011194
Mar 2011182
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010175
Nov 2010157
Oct 2010161
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010207
Jul 2010216
Jun 2010222
May 2010209
Apr 2010201
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010196
Jan 2010189
Dec 2009185
Nov 2009167
Oct 2009163
Sept 2009186
Aug 2009211
Jul 2009230
Jun 2009204
May 2009177
Apr 2009190
Mar 2009190
Feb 2009210
Jan 2009193
Dec 2008188
Nov 2008212
Oct 2008222
Sept 2008269
Aug 2008262
Jun 2008232
May 2008222
Apr 2008206
Mar 2008205
Feb 2008199
Jan 2008197
Dec 2007174
Nov 2007172
Oct 2007145
Sept 2007134
Aug 2007136
Jul 2007128
Jun 2007119
May 2007116
Apr 2007119
Mar 2007114
Feb 2007113
Jan 2007113
Dec 2006113
Nov 2006114
Oct 2006104
Sept 2006143
Aug 2006161
Jul 2006170
Jun 2006156
May 2006155
Apr 2006157
Mar 2006147
Feb 2006148
Jan 2006154
Dec 2005153
Nov 2005150
Oct 2005145
Sept 2005175
Aug 2005294
Jul 2005295
Jun 2005262
May 2005221
Apr 2005207
Mar 2005188
Feb 2005173
Jan 2005166
Dec 2004154
Nov 2004155
Oct 2004151
Sept 2004151
Aug 2004145
Jul 2004134
Jun 2004131
May 2004130
Apr 2004138
Mar 2004112
Feb 2004104
Jan 200499
Dec 200399
Nov 200392
Oct 2003101
Sept 2003108
Aug 200397.4
Jul 2003100
Jun 2003107
May 2003109
Apr 2003117
Mar 2003123
Feb 2003120
Jan 2003125
Dec 2002130
Nov 2002122
Oct 2002125
Sept 2002182
Aug 2002235
Jul 2002250
Jun 2002238
May 2002230
Apr 2002198
Mar 2002197
Feb 2002187
Jan 2002171
Dec 2001158
Nov 2001150
Oct 2001146
Sept 2001162
Aug 2001186
Jul 2001185
May 2001166
Apr 2001162
Mar 2001174
Jan 2001132
Dec 2000124
Nov 2000124
Oct 2000106
Sept 2000114
Aug 2000108
Jul 2000115
Jun 2000122
May 2000111
Apr 2000113
Mar 2000100
Feb 2000100
Jan 200085
Dec 199999
Nov 199995
Oct 1999105
Sept 1999127
Aug 1999114
Jul 1999123
Jun 1999123
May 1999124
Apr 1999115
Mar 1999116
Feb 1999114
Jan 1999109
Dec 1998110
Nov 1998114
Oct 1998113
Sept 1998124
Aug 1998200
Jul 1998225
Jun 1998225
May 1998196
Apr 1998194
Mar 1998154
Feb 1998158
Jan 1998156
Dec 1997152
Nov 1997134
Oct 1997134
Sept 1997137
Aug 1997164
Jul 1997176
Jun 1997165
May 1997165
Apr 1997155
Mar 1997152
Feb 1997137
Jan 1997143
Dec 1996140
Nov 1996140
Oct 1996157
Sept 1996121
Aug 1996121
Apr 1996122
Feb 199685
Jan 199684
Dec 199584
Nov 199591
Oct 1995102
Sept 1995107
Aug 1995101
Jul 199598
Jun 199585
May 199579
Apr 199575
Mar 199565
Feb 199573
Jan 199563
Nov 199442
Oct 199444
Aug 199459
May 199458
Apr 199459
Mar 199452
Feb 199462
Jan 199457

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-560-51-retail-kg.