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Sorghum in Dan Issa

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 24% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 25% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

112–187

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

110–199

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 26% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 110 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dan Issa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 26% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 110 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 142–195 166 122–213 242 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 119–184 141 103–213 202 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 112–187 135 103–254 196 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 111–192 135 103–305 193 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 110–199 139 108–325 195 –
Price history (275 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026156
Aug 2026181
Jul 2026178
Jun 2026163
May 2026144
Apr 2026139
Mar 2026135
Feb 2026129
Jan 2026129
Dec 2025148
Nov 2025149
Oct 2025151
Sept 2025162
Aug 2025190
Jul 2025194
Jun 2025214
Apr 2025215
Mar 2025208
Feb 2025223
Jan 2025245
Dec 2024229
Nov 2024217
Oct 2024241
Sept 2024305
Aug 2024369
Jul 2024393
Jun 2024346
May 2024291
Apr 2024306
Mar 2024256
Feb 2024233
Jan 2024230
Dec 2023214
Nov 2023229
Oct 2023215
Sept 2023335
Aug 2023323
Jun 2023222
Apr 2023210
Mar 2023232
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023184
Dec 2022188
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022161
Jul 2022246
Apr 2022233
Mar 2022240
Feb 2022241
Jan 2022219
Dec 2021203
Nov 2021178
Oct 2021239
Sept 2021245
Aug 2021293
Jul 2021281
Jun 2021230
May 2021230
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021208
Feb 2021212
Jan 2021203
Dec 2020185
Nov 2020167
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020257
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020182
Apr 2020172
Mar 2020153
Feb 2020165
Jan 2020136
Dec 2019139
Nov 2019138
Oct 2019139
Sept 2019132
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019122
Jun 2019125
Apr 2019137
Mar 2019138
Feb 2019141
Jan 2019141
Dec 2018166
Nov 2018146
Oct 2018177
Sept 2018188
Aug 2018191
Jul 2018203
Jun 2018197
Apr 2018173
Mar 2018165
Feb 2018164
Jan 2018172
Dec 2017166
Nov 2017177
Oct 2017195
Sept 2017232
Aug 2017272
Jul 2017263
Jun 2017245
Apr 2017229
Mar 2017209
Feb 2017195
Jan 2017186
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016185
Sept 2016228
Aug 2016227
Jul 2016193
Jun 2016168
May 2016162
Apr 2016146
Feb 2016123
Jan 2016136
Dec 2015147
Oct 2015154
Sept 2015157
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015134
Jun 2015141
May 2015145
Apr 2015147
Mar 2015129
Feb 2015135
Jan 2015135
Nov 2014162
Oct 2014166
Sept 2014178
Aug 2014174
Jul 2014179
Jun 2014184
Apr 2014177
Mar 2014178
Feb 2014182
Jan 2014188
Dec 2013193
Oct 2013206
Sept 2013242
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013265
Jun 2013261
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013226
Feb 2013215
Jan 2013193
Dec 2012173
Nov 2012163
Oct 2012210
Sept 2012244
Aug 2012244
Jul 2012226
Apr 2012195
Mar 2012185
Feb 2012182
Jan 2012191
Dec 2011185
Oct 2011190
Sept 2011193
Jul 2011183
Jun 2011183
Apr 2011167
Mar 2011157
Jan 2011156
Dec 2010152
Nov 2010111
Oct 2010147
Sept 2010184
Aug 2010194
Jul 2010203
Jun 2010204
May 2010194
Apr 2010189
Mar 2010185
Feb 2010172
Jan 2010170
Dec 2009169
Nov 2009168
Oct 2009158
Sept 2009170
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009190
Jun 2009160
Apr 2009154
Mar 2009156
Feb 2009160
Jan 2009162
Dec 2008151
Nov 2008163
Sept 2008208
Aug 2008204
Jul 2008227
May 2008198
Apr 2008192
Mar 2008178
Feb 2008140
Jan 2008117
Dec 200798.2
Nov 2007100
Oct 200790.1
Sept 200791.3
Aug 2007105
Jul 200796.4
May 200795.7
Apr 2007101
Mar 200793.9
Feb 200783.9
Jan 200784.1
Dec 200687.6
Nov 2006126
Oct 2006135
Sept 2006141
Aug 2006148
Jul 2006154
Jun 2006147
May 2006142
Apr 2006129
Mar 2006113
Feb 2006100
Jan 2006104
Dec 2005103
Nov 200589.3
Oct 200574.9
Sept 2005308
Aug 2005304
Jul 2005289
May 2005202
Apr 2005201
Mar 2005177
Feb 2005164
Jan 2005142
Dec 2004133
Nov 2004136
Oct 2004154
Sept 2004130
Aug 2004128
Jul 2004125
May 2004123
Apr 2004128
Mar 2004103
Feb 200494.3
Jan 200491.1
Dec 200383.6
Nov 200385
Oct 200367.7
Sept 200383
Aug 200386.3
Jul 200391.2
Jun 200390.7
May 2003102
Apr 200395.2
Mar 2003106
Feb 2003100
Jan 2003104
Dec 200295
Nov 2002112
Oct 2002108
Sept 2002216
Aug 2002234
Jul 2002244
Jun 2002232
May 2002204
Apr 2002191
Mar 2002194
Feb 2002152
Jan 2002140
Dec 2001126
Sept 2001164
Aug 2001190
Jul 2001184
May 2001162
Apr 2001164
Mar 2001157
Jan 2001107

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-560-65-retail-kg.