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Millet in Dan Issa

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 28% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 20% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

132–211

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

122–215

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dan Issa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 141–194 162 128–203 221 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 119–194 143 107–201 187 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 132–211 156 112–217 225 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 130–216 158 112–244 233 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 122–215 157 98.8–247 223 –
Price history (370 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026170
Aug 2026195
Jul 2026207
Jun 2026202
May 2026182
Apr 2026173
Mar 2026166
Feb 2026157
Jan 2026141
Dec 2025159
Nov 2025173
Oct 2025150
Sept 2025185
Aug 2025217
Jul 2025247
Jun 2025257
May 2025260
Apr 2025254
Mar 2025249
Feb 2025257
Jan 2025272
Dec 2024255
Nov 2024244
Oct 2024226
Sept 2024245
Aug 2024369
Jul 2024384
Jun 2024337
May 2024297
Apr 2024314
Mar 2024272
Feb 2024237
Jan 2024226
Dec 2023230
Nov 2023245
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023262
Aug 2023308
Jun 2023247
May 2023224
Apr 2023221
Mar 2023246
Feb 2023252
Jan 2023220
Dec 2022220
Nov 2022298
Oct 2022177
Jul 2022257
Apr 2022251
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022247
Jan 2022241
Dec 2021235
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021172
Sept 2021226
Aug 2021292
Jul 2021276
Jun 2021258
May 2021241
Apr 2021232
Mar 2021232
Feb 2021235
Jan 2021208
Dec 2020220
Nov 2020174
Oct 2020157
Sept 2020215
Aug 2020246
Jul 2020237
Jun 2020200
May 2020185
Apr 2020193
Mar 2020184
Feb 2020169
Jan 2020163
Dec 2019164
Nov 2019155
Oct 2019137
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019149
Jul 2019147
Jun 2019141
May 2019153
Apr 2019172
Mar 2019157
Feb 2019177
Jan 2019154
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018153
Oct 2018145
Sept 2018173
Aug 2018214
Jul 2018221
Jun 2018225
May 2018211
Apr 2018192
Mar 2018192
Feb 2018189
Jan 2018188
Dec 2017195
Nov 2017192
Oct 2017155
Sept 2017156
Aug 2017275
Jul 2017260
Jun 2017253
May 2017245
Apr 2017231
Mar 2017205
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017164
Nov 2016154
Oct 2016127
Sept 2016144
Aug 2016195
Jul 2016181
Jun 2016167
May 2016163
Feb 2016139
Jan 2016122
Dec 2015129
Oct 2015127
Sept 2015141
Aug 2015142
Jul 2015138
Jun 2015145
May 2015143
Apr 2015142
Mar 2015124
Feb 2015127
Jan 2015128
Nov 2014147
Oct 2014133
Sept 2014150
Aug 2014165
Jul 2014181
Jun 2014185
May 2014185
Apr 2014202
Mar 2014195
Feb 2014193
Jan 2014194
Dec 2013192
Oct 2013187
Sept 2013199
Aug 2013276
Jul 2013270
Jun 2013266
May 2013239
Apr 2013245
Mar 2013235
Feb 2013217
Jan 2013197
Dec 2012201
Nov 2012211
Oct 2012167
Sept 2012218
Aug 2012248
Jul 2012237
May 2012217
Apr 2012214
Mar 2012190
Feb 2012186
Jan 2012185
Dec 2011184
Nov 2011163
Oct 2011130
Sept 2011127
Jul 2011162
Jun 2011162
May 2011176
Apr 2011166
Mar 2011161
Jan 2011153
Dec 2010167
Nov 2010127
Oct 2010124
Sept 2010142
Aug 2010213
Jul 2010197
Jun 2010194
May 2010184
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010166
Feb 2010162
Jan 2010157
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009142
Oct 2009130
Sept 2009138
Aug 2009167
Jul 2009174
Jun 2009144
May 2009139
Apr 2009144
Mar 2009144
Feb 2009148
Jan 2009149
Dec 2008136
Nov 2008128
Oct 2008132
Sept 2008157
Aug 2008187
Jul 2008180
Jun 2008154
May 2008151
Apr 2008147
Mar 2008153
Feb 2008127
Jan 2008116
Dec 200798.2
Nov 2007106
Oct 200787.1
Sept 200793.3
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007105
Jun 2007105
May 2007108
Apr 2007114
Mar 2007112
Feb 2007111
Jan 2007107
Dec 2006101
Nov 200698.8
Oct 200688.1
Sept 2006107
Aug 2006126
Jul 2006136
Jun 2006128
May 2006135
Apr 2006132
Mar 2006122
Feb 2006126
Jan 2006121
Dec 2005124
Nov 2005113
Oct 200598.4
Sept 2005158
Aug 2005297
Jul 2005278
Jun 2005232
May 2005195
Apr 2005179
Mar 2005155
Feb 2005149
Jan 2005136
Dec 2004129
Nov 2004117
Oct 2004111
Sept 2004100
Aug 2004119
Jul 2004121
Jun 2004112
May 2004116
Apr 2004123
Mar 2004104
Feb 200491.6
Jan 200485.9
Dec 200385.7
Nov 200376.7
Oct 200370.4
Sept 200372.6
Aug 200391.6
Jul 200396.2
Jun 200398.5
May 2003113
Apr 2003119
Mar 2003123
Feb 2003118
Jan 2003118
Dec 2002118
Nov 2002112
Oct 2002114
Sept 2002117
Aug 2002221
Jul 2002224
Jun 2002188
May 2002187
Apr 2002180
Mar 2002184
Feb 2002146
Jan 2002138
Dec 2001124
Nov 2001123
Oct 2001114
Sept 2001126
Aug 2001187
Jun 2001158
May 2001150
Apr 2001152
Mar 2001151
Feb 2001118
Jan 200198.9
Dec 2000103
Nov 200099
Oct 200089
Sept 200091
Aug 200094
Jul 2000101
Jun 200088
May 2000113
Apr 200098
Mar 200083
Feb 200083
Jan 200076
Dec 199985
Nov 199972
Oct 199966
Sept 199989
Aug 199994
Jul 199999
Jun 199993
May 199994
Apr 199989
Mar 199989
Feb 199984
Jan 199979
Dec 199888
Nov 199888
Oct 199884
Sept 199887
Aug 1998203
Jul 1998216
Jun 1998203
May 1998177
Apr 1998194
Mar 1998158
Feb 1998142
Jan 1998137
Dec 1997136
Nov 1997122
Oct 1997109
Sept 1997102
Aug 1997173
Jul 1997166
Jun 1997149
May 1997158
Apr 1997150
Mar 1997139
Feb 1997119
Jan 1997133
Dec 1996120
Nov 1996130
Oct 1996111
Sept 199697
Aug 1996109
Apr 199684
Feb 199655
Jan 199656
Dec 199561
Nov 199554
Oct 199550
Sept 199557
Aug 199566
Jul 199544
Jun 199551
May 199551
Apr 199554
Mar 199541
Feb 199545
Jan 199545
Nov 199440
Oct 199432
Aug 199458
May 199459
Apr 199459
Mar 199451
Feb 199456
Jan 199455

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-560-73-retail-kg.