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Sorghum in Diffa Commune

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 5% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

134–251

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

137–262

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 28% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 134 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Diffa Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 28% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 134 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 184–263 220 174–274 293 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 143–251 186 122–265 240 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 134–251 176 117–300 230 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–256 175 117–354 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 137–262 185 123–347 239 –
Price history (293 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026265
Aug 2026256
Jul 2026228
Jun 2026220
May 2026200
Apr 2026216
Mar 2026220
Feb 2026190
Jan 2026216
Dec 2025210
Nov 2025210
Oct 2025198
Sept 2025240
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025240
Jun 2025240
May 2025232
Apr 2025245
Mar 2025235
Feb 2025220
Jan 2025240
Dec 2024249
Nov 2024241
Oct 2024275
Sept 2024380
Aug 2024493
Jul 2024458
Jun 2024431
May 2024343
Mar 2024267
Feb 2024248
Jan 2024257
Dec 2023267
Nov 2023296
Oct 2023356
Sept 2023357
Aug 2023367
Jul 2023222
Jun 2023251
May 2023282
Apr 2023230
Mar 2023220
Feb 2023163
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022207
Oct 2022178
Sept 2022242
Aug 2022242
Jul 2022219
Jun 2022241
May 2022236
Apr 2022226
Mar 2022178
Feb 2022178
Jan 2022179
Dec 2021168
Nov 2021167
Oct 2021163
Sept 2021286
Aug 2021286
Jul 2021286
Jun 2021222
May 2021222
Apr 2021215
Mar 2021178
Feb 2021196
Jan 2021163
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020215
Sept 2020272
Aug 2020293
Jul 2020169
Jun 2020170
May 2020210
Apr 2020220
Mar 2020211
Feb 2020219
Jan 2020203
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019186
Oct 2019181
Sept 2019183
Aug 2019240
Jul 2019195
Jun 2019186
May 2019208
Apr 2019170
Mar 2019170
Feb 2019171
Jan 2019166
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018186
Sept 2018181
Aug 2018260
Jul 2018195
May 2018207
Apr 2018214
Mar 2018223
Feb 2018215
Jan 2018216
Dec 2017186
Nov 2017197
Oct 2017180
Sept 2017197
Aug 2017280
Jul 2017246
Jun 2017261
May 2017197
Apr 2017236
Mar 2017203
Feb 2017194
Jan 2017179
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016155
Sept 2016215
Aug 2016266
Jul 2016177
Jun 2016179
May 2016194
Apr 2016172
Mar 2016162
Feb 2016158
Jan 2016174
Dec 2015174
Oct 2015155
Sept 2015186
Aug 2015174
Jul 2015196
Jun 2015215
May 2015205
Apr 2015195
Mar 2015199
Feb 2015193
Jan 2015199
Nov 2014207
Oct 2014226
Sept 2014235
Aug 2014252
Jul 2014247
Jun 2014231
May 2014218
Apr 2014232
Mar 2014231
Feb 2014239
Jan 2014234
Dec 2013237
Nov 2013235
Oct 2013262
Sept 2013275
Aug 2013278
Jul 2013278
Jun 2013243
May 2013219
Apr 2013221
Mar 2013211
Feb 2013210
Jan 2013191
Dec 2012165
Nov 2012216
Oct 2012246
Sept 2012274
Aug 2012293
Jul 2012283
May 2012253
Apr 2012246
Mar 2012211
Feb 2012198
Jan 2012204
Dec 2011201
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011186
Sept 2011202
Jul 2011188
May 2011187
Apr 2011146
Mar 2011147
Jan 2011167
Dec 2010152
Nov 2010191
Oct 2010208
Sept 2010224
Aug 2010260
Jul 2010240
Jun 2010238
May 2010200
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010196
Feb 2010203
Jan 2010197
Dec 2009183
Nov 2009204
Oct 2009198
Sept 2009202
Aug 2009209
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009174
May 2009172
Apr 2009179
Mar 2009191
Feb 2009193
Jan 2009199
Dec 2008208
Nov 2008240
Oct 2008254
Sept 2008240
Aug 2008227
Jul 2008229
Jun 2008189
May 2008184
Apr 2008184
Mar 2008178
Feb 2008157
Jan 2008151
Dec 2007115
Nov 2007138
Oct 2007155
Sept 2007159
Aug 2007164
Jul 2007163
Jun 2007160
May 2007170
Apr 2007164
Mar 2007162
Feb 2007146
Jan 2007154
Dec 2006138
Nov 2006153
Oct 2006170
Sept 2006178
Aug 2006172
Jul 2006180
Jun 2006167
May 2006155
Apr 2006165
Mar 2006170
Feb 2006165
Jan 2006144
Dec 2005151
Nov 2005144
Oct 2005172
Aug 2005304
Jul 2005304
May 2005220
Apr 2005223
Mar 2005188
Jan 2005169
Dec 2004160
Nov 2004167
Oct 2004186
Sept 2004175
Aug 2004159
Jul 2004156
Jun 2004143
May 2004141
Apr 2004134
Mar 2004124
Feb 2004123
Jan 2004111
Dec 200393.6
Nov 2003105
Sept 200383.7
Aug 2003124
Jul 2003136
Jun 2003129
May 2003145
Apr 2003170
Mar 2003152
Feb 2003149
Jan 2003153
Dec 2002152
Nov 2002130
Sept 2002221
Aug 2002227
Jul 2002227
Jun 2002252
May 2002195
Apr 2002198
Mar 2002200
Feb 2002174
Jan 2002154
Dec 2001139
Nov 2001164
Aug 2001212
Jul 2001201
Jun 2001207
May 2001213
Apr 2001223
Mar 2001187
Feb 2001137
Jan 2001136

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-562-65-retail-kg.