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Millet in Dungass

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 22% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 80% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 75% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–248

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

140–263

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 263 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dungass: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 263 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 174–236 199 154–269 329 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 158–241 193 139–265 279 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–248 186 122–275 264 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 144–249 186 120–295 264 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 140–263 188 114–344 268 –
Price history (315 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026208
Aug 2026212
May 2026237
Apr 2026197
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026188
Jan 2026173
Dec 2025168
Nov 2025180
Aug 2025223
Jun 2025295
May 2025279
Apr 2025271
Mar 2025268
Feb 2025298
Jan 2025274
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024308
Sept 2024341
Aug 2024415
Jul 2024404
Jun 2024395
May 2024359
Apr 2024320
Mar 2024304
Feb 2024268
Jan 2024279
Dec 2023283
Nov 2023275
Oct 2023241
Aug 2023330
May 2023247
Apr 2023243
Feb 2023220
Jan 2023217
Dec 2022238
Nov 2022212
Oct 2022238
Sept 2022245
Aug 2022245
Jul 2022255
Jun 2022255
May 2022271
Mar 2022264
Feb 2022264
Jan 2022259
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021241
Oct 2021243
Sept 2021250
Jun 2021246
May 2021241
Apr 2021245
Mar 2021241
Feb 2021241
Jan 2021236
Dec 2020193
Nov 2020218
Oct 2020236
Aug 2020227
Jul 2020218
Jun 2020195
May 2020182
Apr 2020195
Mar 2020180
Feb 2020183
Jan 2020182
Dec 2019176
Nov 2019173
Oct 2019171
Aug 2019162
Jun 2019187
May 2019182
Apr 2019185
Mar 2019180
Feb 2019173
Jan 2019181
Dec 2018171
Nov 2018189
Sept 2018201
Jun 2018188
May 2018193
Apr 2018180
Mar 2018191
Feb 2018188
Jan 2018201
Dec 2017183
Nov 2017209
Sept 2017270
Jul 2017311
Jun 2017268
Apr 2017201
Mar 2017192
Feb 2017194
Jan 2017145
Nov 2016127
Aug 2016202
Jun 2016156
May 2016144
Apr 2016139
Feb 2016128
Jan 2016120
Dec 2015130
Jul 2015159
Jun 2015166
May 2015165
Apr 2015155
Mar 2015157
Feb 2015169
Jan 2015156
Nov 2014171
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014249
May 2014251
Apr 2014240
Mar 2014242
Feb 2014244
Jan 2014239
Dec 2013241
Nov 2013238
Oct 2013235
Jul 2013236
Jun 2013222
May 2013223
Apr 2013233
Mar 2013225
Feb 2013205
Jan 2013196
Dec 2012194
Nov 2012197
Oct 2012177
Sept 2012192
Aug 2012223
May 2012189
Apr 2012183
Mar 2012174
Feb 2012174
Jan 2012176
Dec 2011170
Nov 2011163
Sept 2011154
Jul 2011167
Jun 2011176
May 2011178
Apr 2011177
Mar 2011177
Feb 2011170
Jan 2011182
Dec 2010168
Nov 2010171
Aug 2010189
Jul 2010189
Jun 2010184
May 2010179
Apr 2010168
Mar 2010167
Feb 2010169
Jan 2010158
Dec 2009158
Nov 2009139
Oct 2009129
Sept 2009128
Jul 2009170
Jun 2009163
May 2009171
Apr 2009170
Mar 2009171
Feb 2009169
Jan 2009161
Dec 2008134
Nov 2008133
Aug 2008191
Jul 2008157
Jun 2008184
May 2008161
Apr 2008150
Feb 2008149
Jan 2008132
Dec 2007132
Nov 2007131
Oct 2007127
Aug 2007126
Jun 2007121
May 2007123
Apr 2007128
Mar 2007127
Feb 2007132
Jan 2007135
Dec 2006126
Nov 2006110
Jul 2006156
Jun 2006140
May 2006146
Apr 2006144
Mar 2006133
Feb 2006126
Jan 2006160
Dec 2005140
Oct 2005100
Sept 2005155
Aug 2005257
Jul 2005253
Jun 2005209
May 2005141
Apr 2005176
Mar 2005149
Feb 2005167
Jan 2005134
Dec 2004143
Nov 2004136
Oct 2004113
Aug 2004134
Jun 2004118
May 2004119
Apr 2004134
Mar 2004137
Feb 2004125
Jan 2004102
Dec 200388.2
Sept 200363.3
Jul 2003101
Jun 2003105
May 2003123
Apr 2003128
Mar 2003121
Feb 2003153
Jan 2003123
Dec 200289
Oct 200291
Sept 2002116
Jul 2002249
Jun 2002249
May 2002249
Apr 2002249
Mar 2002159
Feb 2002170
Jan 2002130
Dec 200191
Nov 200195.5
Sept 2001102
Jun 2001156
May 2001149
Apr 2001153
Mar 2001154
Feb 2001152
Jan 200194.3
Dec 200086.5
Oct 200090.5
Aug 200083.5
Jul 200095
Jun 2000104
May 200092
Apr 200088
Mar 200084.5
Feb 200073
Jan 200066.7
Dec 199965
Nov 199965
Oct 199969
Aug 199955
Jul 199965
Jun 199969
May 199969
Apr 199972
Mar 199972
Feb 199954
Jan 199965
Dec 199858
Nov 199877
Oct 199870
Sept 1998150
Aug 1998180
Jun 1998206
May 1998175
Apr 1998176
Mar 1998132
Feb 1998101
Jan 1998106
Dec 1997106
Sept 1997106
Aug 1997147
Jun 1997141
May 1997128
Apr 1997131
Mar 1997122
Feb 199793
Jan 199792
Dec 199689
Aug 1996131
Jun 1996108
May 199699
Apr 199696
Mar 199683
Feb 199666
Jan 199664
Dec 199567
Nov 199561
Aug 199573
Jul 199577
Jun 199578
May 199574
Apr 199565
Mar 199556
Feb 199551
Jan 199545
Dec 199438
Nov 199434
Aug 199453
Jul 199451
Jun 199455
May 199452
Apr 199446
Mar 199445
Feb 199447
Jan 199439

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-568-73-retail-kg.