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Maize in Gaya

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal July 2026: 41% below the usual level for that time of year.

In July 2026 the price here was 13% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

107–183

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

111–201

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In July 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. No price has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after the last known price, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 183 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Gaya: XOF per KGIn July 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. No price has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after the last known price, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 183 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 127–182 155 116–199 257 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 116–178 142 100–208 237 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 107–183 136 93.1–219 222 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 112–193 143 97.4–268 251 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 111–201 146 104–277 244 –
Price history (330 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026170
Jul 2026178
Jun 2026170
May 2026151
Apr 2026149
Mar 2026164
Feb 2026167
Jan 2026165
Dec 2025175
Sept 2025182
Aug 2025239
Jul 2025278
Jun 2025269
May 2025269
Apr 2025267
Mar 2025269
Feb 2025278
Jan 2025269
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024210
Oct 2024211
Aug 2024383
Jul 2024455
Jun 2024444
May 2024370
Apr 2024326
Mar 2024311
Feb 2024309
Jan 2024294
Dec 2023368
Oct 2023317
Aug 2023403
Jul 2023360
Jun 2023306
May 2023281
Apr 2023281
Mar 2023298
Feb 2023268
Jan 2023268
Dec 2022287
Oct 2022228
Aug 2022335
Jul 2022314
Jun 2022289
May 2022284
Apr 2022313
Mar 2022298
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022268
Dec 2021275
Sept 2021292
Aug 2021306
Jul 2021290
Jun 2021278
May 2021278
Apr 2021277
Mar 2021253
Feb 2021235
Jan 2021193
Dec 2020214
Sept 2020235
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020236
Jun 2020200
May 2020188
Apr 2020188
Mar 2020174
Feb 2020163
Jan 2020162
Dec 2019140
Oct 2019130
Aug 2019176
Jul 2019165
Jun 2019178
May 2019184
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019167
Feb 2019167
Jan 2019167
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018173
Aug 2018238
Jul 2018298
May 2018238
Apr 2018238
Mar 2018179
Feb 2018179
Dec 2017193
Oct 2017203
Aug 2017298
Jul 2017238
Jun 2017259
May 2017233
Apr 2017235
Mar 2017238
Feb 2017208
Jan 2017189
Nov 2016179
Oct 2016179
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016203
Jun 2016179
May 2016238
Apr 2016185
Mar 2016156
Feb 2016148
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015181
Oct 2015235
Sept 2015241
Aug 2015236
Jul 2015207
Jun 2015208
May 2015193
Apr 2015155
Mar 2015137
Feb 2015149
Jan 2015162
Nov 2014144
Aug 2014160
Jul 2014146
Jun 2014176
May 2014184
Apr 2014176
Mar 2014153
Feb 2014153
Jan 2014180
Dec 2013165
Aug 2013241
Jul 2013261
Jun 2013220
May 2013227
Apr 2013228
Mar 2013223
Feb 2013203
Jan 2013196
Dec 2012172
Nov 2012186
Oct 2012159
Sept 2012240
Aug 2012254
Jul 2012252
May 2012230
Apr 2012233
Mar 2012204
Feb 2012199
Jan 2012200
Dec 2011199
Nov 2011199
Oct 2011218
Jul 2011233
Jun 2011187
May 2011203
Apr 2011186
Mar 2011176
Feb 2011162
Jan 2011163
Dec 2010160
Nov 2010142
Oct 2010144
Aug 2010195
Jul 2010195
Jun 2010172
May 2010181
Apr 2010157
Mar 2010141
Feb 2010146
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009140
Nov 2009144
Aug 2009225
Jul 2009234
Jun 2009236
May 2009223
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009198
Feb 2009199
Jan 2009215
Dec 2008182
Oct 2008186
Sept 2008214
Aug 2008302
Jul 2008293
Jun 2008268
May 2008215
Apr 2008208
Mar 2008200
Feb 2008169
Jan 2008153
Dec 2007138
Oct 2007113
Aug 2007113
Jul 2007105
Jun 200788.2
May 200798.4
Apr 2007106
Mar 200799.1
Feb 200792
Jan 2007106
Dec 200694.4
Nov 2006102
Sept 2006126
Aug 2006138
Jul 2006138
Jun 2006149
May 2006167
Apr 2006165
Mar 2006140
Feb 2006136
Jan 2006138
Dec 2005129
Nov 2005133
Oct 2005129
Sept 2005150
Aug 2005274
Jul 2005281
Jun 2005252
May 2005222
Apr 2005204
Mar 2005206
Feb 2005162
Jan 2005136
Dec 2004140
Nov 2004122
Aug 2004169
Jul 2004147
Jun 2004119
May 2004107
Apr 2004113
Mar 2004108
Feb 2004108
Jan 2004108
Sept 2003105
Aug 200395.3
Jul 200399.2
Jun 2003108
May 2003115
Apr 2003112
Mar 2003122
Feb 2003118
Jan 2003122
Dec 2002114
Nov 2002114
Oct 2002130
Aug 2002206
Jul 2002213
Jun 2002188
May 2002191
Apr 2002194
Mar 2002167
Feb 2002168
Jan 2002160
Dec 2001142
Sept 2001134
Aug 2001190
Jul 2001176
Jun 2001165
May 2001154
Apr 2001165
Mar 2001136
Feb 2001115
Jan 2001109
Dec 2000127
Nov 2000123
Oct 2000135
Aug 2000146
Jul 2000150
Jun 2000148
May 2000139
Apr 2000131
Mar 2000116
Feb 2000116
Jan 2000104
Sept 1999102
Aug 1999112
Jul 1999119
Jun 1999110
May 1999111
Apr 1999118
Mar 1999121
Feb 1999113
Jan 1999110
Nov 1998122
Aug 1998180
Jul 1998172
Jun 1998206
May 1998189
Apr 1998179
Mar 1998160
Feb 1998149
Jan 1998148
Oct 1997164
Aug 1997140
Jul 1997197
Jun 1997193
May 1997204
Apr 1997182
Mar 1997183
Feb 1997138
Jan 1997138
Dec 1996134
Oct 1996128
Aug 1996167
Jul 1996159
Jun 1996147
May 1996134
Apr 1996126
Mar 1996114
Feb 1996110
Jan 199695
Sept 1995127
Aug 1995136
Jul 1995125
Jun 1995112
May 199595
Apr 1995104
Mar 199589
Feb 199564
Jan 199589
Nov 199481
Oct 199475
Sept 199475
Aug 199473
Jul 199472
Jun 199472
May 199473
Apr 199467
Mar 199472
Feb 199463
Jan 199454

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: July 2026. Series id: niger-577-51-retail-kg.