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Sorghum in Gaya

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 5% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

157–252

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

148–250

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Gaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 182–246 210 172–270 316 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 161–244 193 146–273 285 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 157–252 195 135–279 300 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 147–247 182 127–337 279 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 148–250 186 139–374 270 –
Price history (302 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026240
Aug 2026227
Jul 2026227
Jun 2026227
May 2026208
Apr 2026221
Mar 2026222
Feb 2026201
Jan 2026188
Dec 2025215
Nov 2025250
Oct 2025222
Sept 2025229
Aug 2025276
Jul 2025294
Jun 2025290
May 2025278
Apr 2025290
Mar 2025294
Feb 2025294
Jan 2025284
Dec 2024311
Nov 2024333
Oct 2024354
Sept 2024389
Aug 2024406
Jul 2024458
Jun 2024471
May 2024363
Apr 2024326
Mar 2024363
Feb 2024345
Jan 2024319
Dec 2023368
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023317
Sept 2023391
Aug 2023403
Jul 2023360
Jun 2023306
May 2023281
Apr 2023281
Mar 2023298
Feb 2023268
Jan 2023268
Dec 2022287
Nov 2022271
Oct 2022196
Sept 2022281
Aug 2022335
Jul 2022314
Jun 2022289
May 2022284
Apr 2022313
Mar 2022298
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021302
Sept 2021309
Aug 2021323
Jul 2021299
Jun 2021278
May 2021278
Apr 2021271
Mar 2021252
Feb 2021259
Jan 2021236
Dec 2020116Data error
Nov 2020272
Oct 2020226
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020301
Jul 2020276
Jun 2020237
May 2020232
Apr 2020223
Mar 2020208
Feb 2020211
Jan 2020213
Dec 2019204
Nov 2019201
Oct 2019152
Sept 2019178
Aug 2019203
Jul 2019192
Jun 2019207
May 2019215
Apr 2019211
Mar 2019186
Feb 2019186
Jan 2019186
Dec 2018160
Nov 2018197
Oct 2018208
Sept 2018238
Aug 2018238
Jul 2018298
May 2018238
Apr 2018238
Mar 2018241
Feb 2018238
Dec 2017211
Nov 2017244
Oct 2017301
Sept 2017241
Aug 2017327
Jul 2017298
Jun 2017298
May 2017238
Apr 2017238
Mar 2017238
Feb 2017211
Jan 2017196
Nov 2016238
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016225
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016204
Jun 2016172
May 2016205
Apr 2016164
Mar 2016134
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015244
Oct 2015244
Sept 2015229
Aug 2015199
Jul 2015190
Jun 2015182
May 2015181
Apr 2015163
Mar 2015159
Feb 2015149
Jan 2015157
Nov 2014196
Oct 2014202
Sept 2014185
Aug 2014167
Jul 2014206
Jun 2014211
May 2014220
Apr 2014228
Mar 2014211
Feb 2014210
Jan 2014205
Dec 2013211
Nov 2013278
Oct 2013299
Sept 2013305
Aug 2013267
Jul 2013279
Jun 2013233
May 2013227
Apr 2013244
Mar 2013221
Feb 2013205
Jan 2013208
Dec 2012233
Nov 2012235
Oct 2012219
Sept 2012268
Aug 2012260
Jul 2012257
May 2012239
Apr 2012226
Mar 2012202
Feb 2012203
Jan 2012203
Dec 2011216
Nov 2011233
Oct 2011245
Sept 2011191
Jul 2011208
Jun 2011181
May 2011211
Apr 2011177
Mar 2011168
Feb 2011144
Jan 2011144
Dec 2010154
Nov 2010164
Oct 2010154
Sept 2010179
Aug 2010203
Jul 2010205
Jun 2010180
May 2010170
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010170
Feb 2010163
Jan 2010157
Dec 2009203
Nov 2009205
Oct 2009206
Sept 2009192
Aug 2009276
Jul 2009241
Jun 2009221
May 2009211
Apr 2009232
Mar 2009201
Feb 2009202
Jan 2009214
Dec 2008222
Nov 2008242
Oct 2008230
Sept 2008250
Aug 2008281
Jul 2008274
Jun 2008223
May 2008198
Apr 2008193
Mar 2008187
Feb 2008153
Jan 2008140
Dec 2007142
Nov 2007146
Oct 2007128
Sept 2007119
Aug 2007114
Jul 2007111
Jun 2007113
May 2007116
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007111
Feb 2007117
Jan 2007114
Dec 2006110
Nov 2006116
Oct 2006144
Sept 2006141
Aug 2006162
Jul 2006149
Jun 2006151
May 2006158
Apr 2006157
Mar 2006153
Feb 2006149
Jan 2006147
Dec 2005135
Nov 2005139
Oct 2005238
Sept 2005281
Aug 2005352
Jul 2005324
Jun 2005261
May 2005218
Apr 2005201
Mar 2005189
Feb 2005172
Jan 2005135
Dec 2004128
Nov 2004143
Oct 2004144
Sept 2004143
Aug 2004166
Jul 2004158
Jun 2004145
May 2004137
Apr 2004139
Mar 2004133
Feb 2004115
Jan 2004103
Dec 200399.8
Nov 2003115
Oct 2003109
Sept 2003106
Aug 2003100
Jul 2003101
Jun 2003113
May 2003122
Apr 2003128
Mar 2003133
Feb 2003124
Jan 2003138
Dec 2002110
Nov 2002166
Oct 2002225
Sept 2002236
Aug 2002240
Jul 2002230
Jun 2002192
May 2002191
Apr 2002190
Mar 2002200
Feb 2002184
Jan 2002159
Dec 2001142
Nov 2001170
Oct 2001172
Sept 2001174
Aug 2001182
Jul 2001167
Jun 2001158
May 2001148
Apr 2001192
Mar 2001138
Feb 2001102
Jan 200192

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-577-65-retail-kg.