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Millet in Koundoumaoua

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 22% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

133–216

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

140–231

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Koundoumaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 162–217 183 142–223 269 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 132–209 158 124–216 213 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 133–216 164 122–220 231 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 140–222 171 128–245 249 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 140–231 176 130–283 262 –
Price history (384 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026200
Aug 2026212
Jul 2026222
Jun 2026237
May 2026208
Apr 2026204
Mar 2026228
Feb 2026197
Jan 2026183
Dec 2025187
Nov 2025202
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025203
Aug 2025283
Jul 2025287
Jun 2025305
May 2025285
Apr 2025284
Mar 2025292
Feb 2025292
Jan 2025294
Dec 2024274
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024251
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024462
Jul 2024465
Jun 2024368
May 2024349
Apr 2024324
Mar 2024324
Feb 2024315
Jan 2024294
Dec 2023236
Nov 2023260
Oct 2023216
Sept 2023268
Aug 2023323
Jul 2023292
Jun 2023270
May 2023290
Apr 2023283
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023228
Jan 2023214
Dec 2022223
Oct 2022199
Sept 2022274
Aug 2022279
Jul 2022312
Jun 2022301
May 2022275
Apr 2022276
Mar 2022259
Feb 2022264
Jan 2022273
Dec 2021268
Nov 2021199
Oct 2021184
Sept 2021284
Aug 2021324
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021275
May 2021259
Apr 2021256
Feb 2021238
Jan 2021222
Dec 2020201
Nov 2020168
Oct 2020159
Sept 2020258
Aug 2020294
Jul 2020269
Jun 2020226
May 2020220
Apr 2020218
Mar 2020209
Feb 2020206
Jan 2020188
Dec 2019169
Nov 2019155
Oct 2019144
Sept 2019142
Aug 2019172
Jul 2019216
Jun 2019167
May 2019188
Apr 2019197
Mar 2019181
Feb 2019156
Jan 2019154
Dec 2018153
Nov 2018152
Oct 2018144
Sept 2018186
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018214
Jun 2018212
May 2018190
Apr 2018213
Mar 2018186
Feb 2018190
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017177
Oct 2017145
Sept 2017202
Aug 2017294
Jul 2017296
Jun 2017299
May 2017285
Apr 2017265
Mar 2017245
Feb 2017225
Jan 2017187
Nov 2016152
Oct 2016140
Sept 2016149
Aug 2016231
Jul 2016204
Jun 2016166
May 2016164
Apr 2016156
Mar 2016151
Feb 2016136
Jan 2016117
Dec 2015117
Oct 2015128
Sept 2015138
Aug 2015149
Jul 2015148
Jun 2015155
May 2015162
Apr 2015153
Mar 2015128
Feb 2015137
Jan 2015135
Nov 2014148
Oct 2014128
Sept 2014174
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014217
Jun 2014223
May 2014220
Apr 2014226
Mar 2014223
Feb 2014216
Jan 2014217
Dec 2013218
Nov 2013218
Oct 2013196
Sept 2013221
Aug 2013284
Jul 2013290
Jun 2013259
May 2013250
Apr 2013249
Mar 2013253
Feb 2013245
Jan 2013207
Dec 2012201
Nov 2012175
Oct 2012156
Sept 2012253
Aug 2012262
Jul 2012271
May 2012239
Apr 2012240
Mar 2012218
Feb 2012215
Jan 2012192
Dec 2011191
Nov 2011168
Oct 2011134
Sept 2011123
Jul 2011141
Jun 2011143
May 2011154
Apr 2011146
Mar 2011140
Jan 2011142
Nov 2010119
Oct 2010106
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010232
Jul 2010220
Jun 2010211
May 2010210
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010192
Feb 2010189
Jan 2010183
Dec 2009176
Nov 2009151
Oct 2009139
Sept 2009182
Aug 2009215
Jul 2009206
Jun 2009176
May 2009166
Apr 2009174
Mar 2009160
Feb 2009159
Jan 2009157
Dec 2008142
Nov 2008126
Oct 2008116
Sept 2008156
Aug 2008187
Jul 2008176
Jun 2008161
May 2008143
Apr 2008140
Mar 2008155
Feb 2008129
Jan 2008117
Dec 200797.4
Nov 2007104
Oct 200787.4
Sept 2007111
Aug 2007117
Jul 2007117
Jun 2007119
May 2007122
Apr 2007132
Mar 2007119
Feb 2007118
Jan 2007110
Dec 2006108
Nov 2006107
Oct 2006102
Sept 2006139
Aug 2006151
Jul 2006159
Jun 2006144
May 2006138
Apr 2006131
Mar 2006130
Feb 2006129
Jan 2006126
Dec 2005116
Nov 200598.7
Oct 2005106
Sept 2005189
Aug 2005275
Jul 2005267
Jun 2005210
May 2005185
Apr 2005181
Mar 2005159
Feb 2005151
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004117
Nov 2004112
Oct 200495.2
Sept 2004128
Aug 2004139
Jul 2004115
Jun 2004110
May 2004118
Apr 2004111
Mar 2004103
Feb 200493.6
Jan 200474.7
Dec 200366.3
Nov 200371.1
Oct 200365.4
Sept 200385.3
Aug 200396.2
Jul 2003107
Jun 2003108
May 2003118
Apr 2003118
Mar 2003117
Feb 2003119
Jan 2003114
Dec 2002111
Nov 2002116
Oct 2002105
Sept 2002164
Aug 2002191
Jul 2002204
Jun 2002186
May 2002180
Apr 2002162
Mar 2002153
Feb 2002144
Jan 2002118
Dec 2001110
Nov 2001109
Oct 2001108
Sept 2001145
Aug 2001196
Jul 2001193
Jun 2001174
May 2001163
Apr 2001171
Mar 2001159
Feb 2001122
Jan 2001103
Dec 2000114
Nov 200092
Oct 200087
Sept 2000103
Aug 2000106
Jul 2000109
Jun 200098.5
May 2000108
Apr 2000103
Mar 200087
Feb 200082
Jan 200069.7
Dec 199972
Nov 199972
Oct 199973
Sept 199972
Aug 199972
Jul 199981
Jun 199981
May 199978
Apr 199981
Mar 199970
Feb 199963
Jan 199969
Dec 199870
Nov 199875
Oct 199874
Sept 1998141
Aug 1998201
Jul 1998200
Jun 1998183
May 1998172
Apr 1998167
Mar 1998145
Feb 1998132
Jan 1998128
Dec 1997107
Nov 1997111
Oct 199795
Sept 199795
Aug 1997143
Jul 1997146
Jun 1997131
May 1997131
Apr 1997122
Mar 1997107
Feb 199792
Jan 199791
Dec 199680
Nov 199686
Oct 199674
Sept 199679
Aug 1996108
Jul 1996101
Jun 199686
May 199690
Apr 199687
Mar 199666
Feb 199663
Jan 199659
Dec 199553
Nov 199557
Oct 199550
Sept 199548
Aug 199556
Jul 199565
Jun 199552
May 199551
Apr 199548
Mar 199544
Feb 199546
Jan 199542
Dec 199436
Nov 199438
Oct 199440
Sept 199438
Aug 199459
Jul 199463
Jun 199469
May 199459
Apr 199451
Mar 199451
Feb 199449
Jan 199437

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-596-73-retail-kg.