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Sorghum in Maradi Commune

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 18% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 11% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

132–211

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

123–221

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Maradi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 211 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 159–208 178 155–232 268 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 143–208 163 125–231 248 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 132–211 156 119–266 239 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 124–215 151 107–326 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 123–221 158 106–327 232 –
Price history (420 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026181
Aug 2026194
Jul 2026207
Jun 2026204
May 2026185
Apr 2026165
Mar 2026171
Feb 2026162
Jan 2026156
Dec 2025155
Nov 2025192
Oct 2025171
Sept 2025176
Aug 2025246
Jul 2025301
Jun 2025290
May 2025260
Apr 2025255
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025245
Jan 2025264
Dec 2024265
Nov 2024236
Oct 2024290
Sept 2024344
Aug 2024388
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024415
May 2024324
Apr 2024307
Mar 2024276
Feb 2024279
Jan 2024255
Dec 2023226
Nov 2023264
Oct 2023284
Sept 2023339
Aug 2023315
Jul 2023333
Jun 2023259
May 2023245
Apr 2023228
Mar 2023235
Feb 2023227
Jan 2023223
Dec 2022206
Nov 2022319
Oct 2022250
Sept 2022245
Aug 2022245
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022292
May 2022259
Apr 2022255
Mar 2022259
Feb 2022264
Jan 2022261
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021259
Oct 2021268
Sept 2021262
Aug 2021293
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021257
May 2021257
Apr 2021237
Mar 2021231
Feb 2021226
Jan 2021221
Dec 2020222
Nov 2020213
Oct 2020231
Sept 2020264
Aug 2020278
Jul 2020299
Jun 2020227
May 2020206
Apr 2020182
Mar 2020167
Feb 2020163
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019167
Nov 2019166
Oct 2019152
Sept 2019152
Aug 2019152
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019166
May 2019168
Apr 2019169
Mar 2019168
Feb 2019173
Jan 2019168
Dec 2018190
Nov 2018148
Oct 2018170
Sept 2018196
Aug 2018208
Jul 2018234
Jun 2018189
May 2018206
Apr 2018213
Mar 2018192
Feb 2018215
Jan 2018204
Dec 2017211
Nov 2017185
Oct 2017245
Sept 2017257
Aug 2017290
Jul 2017290
Jun 2017287
May 2017258
Apr 2017245
Mar 2017212
Feb 2017209
Jan 2017172
Nov 2016194
Oct 2016197
Sept 2016220
Aug 2016217
Jul 2016203
Jun 2016177
May 2016169
Apr 2016159
Mar 2016152
Feb 2016154
Jan 2016147
Dec 2015170
Oct 2015166
Sept 2015188
Aug 2015155
Jul 2015158
Jun 2015160
May 2015158
Apr 2015147
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015152
Jan 2015146
Dec 2014158
Nov 2014179
Oct 2014181
Sept 2014184
Aug 2014186
Jul 2014197
Jun 2014193
May 2014196
Apr 2014203
Mar 2014202
Feb 2014201
Jan 2014193
Dec 2013202
Nov 2013199
Oct 2013227
Sept 2013236
Aug 2013233
Jul 2013273
Jun 2013238
May 2013222
Apr 2013213
Mar 2013194
Feb 2013204
Jan 2013235
Dec 2012176
Nov 2012167
Oct 2012211
Sept 2012231
Aug 2012236
Jul 2012245
May 2012209
Apr 2012204
Mar 2012190
Feb 2012179
Jan 2012177
Dec 2011188
Nov 2011157
Oct 2011148
Sept 2011156
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011164
Jun 2011157
May 2011167
Apr 2011126
Mar 2011138
Feb 2011143
Jan 2011143
Dec 2010135
Nov 2010144
Oct 2010156
Sept 2010162
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010208
Jun 2010203
May 2010198
Apr 2010171
Mar 2010166
Feb 2010162
Jan 2010158
Dec 2009148
Nov 2009158
Oct 2009156
Sept 2009171
Aug 2009190
Jul 2009186
Jun 2009168
May 2009160
Apr 2009163
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009161
Jan 2009157
Dec 2008151
Nov 2008166
Oct 2008148
Sept 2008164
Aug 2008188
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008170
May 2008153
Apr 2008158
Mar 2008155
Feb 2008145
Jan 2008120
Dec 2007106
Nov 2007117
Oct 2007110
Sept 2007109
Aug 2007107
Jul 2007105
Jun 2007102
May 2007107
Apr 2007107
Mar 2007109
Feb 2007106
Jan 2007109
Dec 2006103
Nov 2006103
Oct 2006107
Sept 2006130
Aug 2006138
Jul 2006142
Jun 2006132
May 2006137
Apr 2006134
Mar 2006136
Feb 2006135
Jan 2006129
Dec 2005126
Nov 2005126
Oct 2005126
Sept 2005209
Aug 2005268
Jul 2005262
Jun 2005221
May 2005199
Apr 2005194
Mar 2005176
Feb 2005155
Jan 2005150
Dec 2004130
Sept 2004125
Aug 2004133
Jul 2004127
Jun 2004117
May 2004115
Apr 2004114
Mar 2004106
Feb 200490.9
Jan 200491.2
Dec 200382.9
Nov 200382.4
Oct 200388.9
Sept 200385.7
Aug 200380.8
Jul 200392.4
Jun 2003101
May 2003106
Apr 2003110
Mar 2003109
Feb 2003108
Jan 2003108
Dec 2002101
Nov 2002114
Oct 2002116
Sept 2002153
Aug 2002198
Jul 2002206
Jun 2002210
May 2002183
Apr 2002154
Mar 2002159
Feb 2002144
Jan 2002131
Oct 2001139
Sept 2001176
Aug 2001168
Jul 2001176
Jun 2001176
May 2001172
Apr 2001167
Mar 2001152
Feb 2001126
Jan 200199
Dec 2000101
Nov 200095
Oct 2000103
Sept 2000108
Aug 2000103
Jul 2000114
Jun 200091
May 200087
Apr 200094
Mar 200088
Feb 200097
Jan 200084
Dec 199983
Nov 199980
Oct 199977
Sept 199978
Aug 199977
Jul 199985
Jun 199971
Feb 199970
Jan 199976
Sept 1998178
Aug 1998202
Jul 1998182
Jun 1998163
May 1998164
Apr 1998160
Mar 1998134
Feb 1998133
Jan 1998125
Dec 1997113
Nov 1997109
Oct 1997114
Sept 1997137
Aug 1997160
Jul 1997156
Jun 1997145
May 1997136
Apr 1997128
Mar 1997121
Feb 1997110
Jan 199794
Dec 199688
Nov 199694
Oct 1996100
Sept 1996100
Aug 1996104
Jul 1996100
Jun 199693
May 199696
Apr 1996100
Mar 199675
Feb 199666
Jan 199663
Dec 199558
Nov 199562
Oct 199553
Sept 199554
Aug 199552
Jul 199554
Jun 199543
May 199563
Apr 199544
Mar 199550
Feb 199554
Jan 199552
Dec 199448
Nov 199444
Aug 199458
Jul 199464
Jun 199453
May 199452
Apr 199452
Mar 199452
Feb 199454
Jan 199448
Dec 199338
Jul 199357
Apr 199348
Mar 199351
Feb 199353
Jan 199350
Dec 199250
Nov 199247
Oct 199262
Sept 199273
Aug 199270
Jul 199270
Jun 199265
May 199257
Apr 199252.5
Mar 199248
Feb 199251
Jan 199243
Dec 199137
Nov 199146
Oct 199147
Sept 199153
Aug 199159
Jul 199168
Jun 199161
May 199159
Apr 199163
Mar 199160
Feb 199160
Jan 199156
Dec 199044
Nov 199050
Oct 199055
Sept 199055
Aug 199052
Jul 199057
Jun 199052
May 199047
Apr 199043
Mar 199044
Feb 199044
Jan 199051

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-602-65-retail-kg.